Food security has become one of the most consequential strategic questions facing the Arab world. Heavy reliance on imported grain, seeds, and agricultural inputs, combined with limited control over pricing and distribution, has left the region exposed to decisions made far beyond its borders.
As global supply chains come under growing strain from geopolitical competition, climate pressures, and trade disruptions, questions about who ultimately controls the food that reaches Arab markets have moved from a technical concern to a matter of national and regional security. This Pulse survey examines who is seen as shaping seed supply, pricing, and trade; how much influence external actors are believed to hold; who should lead efforts to strengthen food security; and what the coming decade may bring.
93%
say the Arab world controls only a small portion, or none, of its own food chain
92%
see food supply as an actual or potential form of geopolitical leverage
85%
believe a deliberate plan exists to control Arab food supplies
Farmers rank last in control over their own seeds
38%see global corporations as the biggest influence over the seeds Arab farmers plant
Governments follow at 31%, with 23% unsure and just 8% crediting farmers themselves. In a question specifically about the seeds they plant, respondents rank farmers last among the named actors — a sign that agricultural decision-making is seen as sitting well above and beyond the farm gate.
This marginal position for cultivators sets the tone for the rest of the survey: decision-making power over the food chain is consistently perceived as flowing outward, toward corporate suppliers and state authorities.
Who has the most influence over the seeds Arab farmers plant?
Non-replantable seeds are seen as a built-in point of leverage
69%say non-replantable commercial seeds give suppliers "a great deal" of influence over regional food supply
The remaining 31% still describe it as giving "some influence" — no respondent denied the dependency confers influence at all. When the question is reframed around the structural fact that most commercial seeds can't be replanted, the perceived corporate hold on food supply hardens further.
A farming system requiring inputs to be repurchased every season is read as transferring a recurring point of leverage to the companies that supply them.
How much influence does seed non-replantability give suppliers?
Prices are seen as set by middlemen, not markets
69%attribute Arab food prices mainly to traders and importers, not global markets or local supply and demand
Global markets trail at 23%, and local supply and demand at just 8%. Pricing power is perceived to sit with the intermediaries positioned between producers and consumers, rather than with market fundamentals or international conditions.
If accurate, this perception implies household price volatility is read as shaped less by what is grown or what the world is paying, and more by decisions made within domestic and regional trading networks.
What mainly determines food prices in Arab markets?
Global demand for local crops benefits everyone but the producer
62%say foreign markets end up with the greatest influence once a local crop becomes a global trend
The remaining 38% point to exporters. Neither local producers nor domestic consumers register as perceived beneficiaries of rising global demand — the absence of any option crediting farmers or domestic actors reinforces a theme running through the whole survey.
Even success, in the form of global demand for a local product, is perceived as accruing to actors outside the immediate production base rather than strengthening the position of those who grow it.
Who ends up with the greatest influence over a local crop that goes global?
Regional control over the food chain is seen as marginal
93%believe the Arab world controls only a small portion of its food chain, or none at all
62% say the region controls just "a small portion," and a further 31% say "very little to none." Only 8% believe the region controls most of it — among the most decisive results in the survey.
Whatever the true extent of regional agricultural sovereignty, this near-universal perception of limited control frames how respondents interpret the more specific findings elsewhere in the survey — as pieces of a single, larger picture of dependency rather than isolated concerns.
How much of its own food chain does the Arab world currently control?
Food is increasingly viewed as a strategic weapon
92%believe control over food supply either already is, or could become, a form of leverage between states
69% say this leverage "already happens," and a further 23% believe it "could happen in the future." Only 8% consider it unlikely. This mirrors concerns raised elsewhere about the "weaponisation" of interdependence in energy, finance, and technology.
Food, in the public's view, is increasingly read through the same strategic lens as those other domains.
Could control over the food chain be used as leverage between countries?
Governments are expected to fix what they're not seen as controlling
85%say governments should lead efforts to strengthen the region's food security
Local farmers and the private sector each draw just 8%. Yet this expectation sits in contrast to an earlier finding: only 31% currently see governments as holding the greatest influence over seed supply.
Read together, the two results suggest a gap between where respondents believe control presently sits and where they believe responsibility for change should be placed — governments are seen as under-represented in current influence, but expected to close that gap regardless.
Who should lead efforts to strengthen regional food security?
The next decade brings little optimism
85%do not expect the region's control over its food chain to improve within ten years
54% expect control to stay "about the same," and 31% expect it to get worse — only 15% expect it to improve. Looking ahead, optimism is limited.
This outlook is consistent with the picture built up across the survey: a strong sense of present dependency, paired with limited expectation that current trajectories will reverse without a deliberate shift in policy or investment.
Ten years from now, will Arab control over the food chain be more, less, or the same?
Most see dependency as designed, not accidental
85%believe a deliberate plan exists to control food supplies in the Arab world
15% say no. The survey cannot establish whether such a plan exists — what it does establish is that the perception is widely and strongly held.
Combined with the findings on seed supply, pricing, foreign influence over local crops, and geopolitical leverage, this suggests respondents do not view the region's limited food-chain control as incidental, but as the product of choices made by external actors.
Do you believe there is a deliberate plan to control food supplies in the Arab world?
"Respondents don't see the region's limited grip on its own food chain as an accident of geography or markets — they see it as the product of choices made by others."
A chain shaped from outside, at every link
Taken together, the survey points to a consistent narrative: respondents see the Arab world's food chain as substantially shaped by actors outside the region — from the corporations that supply seeds, to the traders who set prices, to the foreign markets that capture the benefits of local success — while farmers and domestic producers are perceived to hold comparatively little influence at any stage. Responsibility for reversing this is placed on governments, yet respondents remain largely unconvinced the region's position will strengthen without a deliberate change of course. As a baseline reading for future Pulse surveys, these findings offer a marker against which to track whether perceptions of food dependency deepen, stabilise, or begin to ease in the years ahead.