Strategic Assessment: The “Rising Lion” Strike and the Reshaping of Regional Security in the Middle East

On June 13, 2025, Israel launched an unprecedented and overt military operation against Iran, codenamed "Operation Rising Lion", marking a decisive shift in its strategic doctrine regarding Tehran’s nuclear trajectory. The operation, involving more than 200 combat aircraft—including F-15Is, F-16Is, and F-35s—targeted key nuclear infrastructure, foremost among them the Natanz enrichment facility, in addition to sensitive military and intelligence compounds in Tehran and suspected subterranean missile installations across multiple provinces.   The aerial strikes were not executed in isolation. They were accompanied by limited ground incursions carried out by Israeli special operations forces inside Iranian territory, alongside locally launched drones and sabotage missions activated by embedded networks, indicating a hybrid warfare architecture integrating airpower, cyber capability, and covert assets.   The operation resulted in the assassination of several senior Iranian military officials, including IRGC Commander Hossein Salami and Armed Forces Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri, as well as prominent nuclear scientists. Nevertheless, the intensely fortified Fordow enrichment facility, situated beneath a mountain near Qom, remained untouched, preserving Iran’s technical capacity to resume high-grade uranium enrichment if it chooses to do so.   Iran’s immediate response consisted of launching over 100 armed drones toward Israeli airspace, followed by announcements to construct a new, “impenetrable” enrichment site and to upgrade centrifuge infrastructure at Fordow. Globally, oil prices surged by over 10% within 24 hours, reflecting fears of regional destabilisation, particularly in light of Iran’s proximity to critical maritime chokepoints.   This paper thus aims to analyse the likely contours of Iran’s retaliatory strategy and to assess the broader geopolitical ramifications of the Israeli strike, particularly as they pertain to the security and strategic postures of the Arab Gulf in light of the retaliatory actions of Iran.