Political Studies

Recent developments point to a discernible shift in U.S. foreign policy, as Washington moves away from traditional international principles towards a more pragmatic, interest-driven approach. Within this evolving framework, islands and narrow maritime chokepoints have gained renewed strategic prominence as critical instruments of influence. No longer viewed as remote geographic outposts, islands are increasingly regarded as pivotal assets for securing energy flows, safeguarding supply lines, and controlling maritime navigation. This shift reflects a broader strategic intent to assert effective control over key geographic positions in order to sustain military presence, expand economic influence, and command the vital corridors through which global trade flows.   This heightened focus on islands in current U.S. policy reflects a strategic mindset that tightly links geography, military presence, and sovereignty. Within this framework, geographic locations are treated as assets that can be leveraged through acquisition or utilised as instruments of pressure and bargaining. In this context, islands are seen as discrete, manageable nodes that can be secured or defended to project influence across wider regions. This approach is evident in the handling of territories such as Greenland, Kharg Island, the Chagos Archipelago, and the Falkland Islands during Donald Trump's presidency. Against this backdrop, the present analysis seeks to unpack the geopolitical foundations and strategic drivers shaping the Trump administration’s approach to islands, positioning them as central instruments in the reconfiguration of American influence.

Hungary has a strong and well-developed agricultural sector. Arable land and permanent crops account for 4.3 million hectares, of which approximately 130,000 hectares are irrigated. The main crops include wheat (0.9 million hectares), corn (0.8 million hectares), and sunflowers (0.7 million hectares). While pastures cover 0.8 million hectares and forests cover 2 million hectares, livestock production includes 2.8 million pigs and 33.8 million poultry.   The country’s economy is export-dependent, so many technological advancements and the easing of financial restrictions, such as VAT, were integrated across various sectors, helping improve products and increase profits. The agricultural sectors benefited greatly from such policies, where crops and livestock exports have increased throughout the years. Agricultural exports constituted 9.1% of Hungary's total exports in 2024, including commodities like grains and grain products (13%), animal feed (12%), meat and meat products (9%), dairy products (5%), and fruits and vegetables (5%). Hungary's pioneering role in the agricultural sector increases its prospects for adopting measures to address food insecurity while increasing the benefits for any country that cooperates with it.  

Modern patterns of armed conflict are shifting from time-limited operations reliant on advanced, low-volume technologies to protracted confrontations driven by industrial attrition and the large-scale deployment of autonomous systems. This transition exposes critical deficiencies in the traditional defence industrial base's production capacity. As munitions stockpiles decline amid ongoing conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, military assessments increasingly identify manufacturing capability, supply chain resilience, and the speed of industrial mobilisation as decisive factors in strategic competition, alongside technological innovation.   In response to these dynamics, national security institutions are moving to reactivate historically grounded models that integrate the commercial manufacturing sector into military production. This approach was notably deployed during the Second World War, when Ford Motor Company redirected its civilian production lines to manufacture bombers, Chrysler Corporation established dedicated facilities for tank production, and General Motors allocated its industrial capacity to the production of aircraft engines and munitions.   The current operational environment demands a sustained supply of conventional mechanical platforms and expendable systems, including unmanned aerial vehicles and sensor-equipped tactical vehicles. As battlefield requirements increasingly outpace the production capacity of defence manufacturers, the automotive sector emerges as a uniquely positioned industrial base, combining large-scale output with advanced mechanical engineering capabilities. This reality necessitates a focused assessment of the structural and technical attributes that make it the most viable sector for rapid conversion to support military production.

Many analysts fall into a recurring methodological error when assessing the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) position amid regional turbulence. They measure the country’s resilience by its geographical distance from centres of risk, overlooking its exceptional capacity for strategic reinvention in the face of crises. This misreading, in particular, lends early credibility to pessimistic narratives of a “decline of the Gulf”, narratives that quickly unravel under the weight of empirical evidence and the firmness of facts. The UAE has not navigated successive regional crises by relying on geographic insulation or external protection. Rather, it has done so through deeper, more enduring foundations: a demonstrated ability to convert shocks into substantive reform, and to elevate those reforms into sustained competitive advantage.   Accordingly, this analysis does not seek to downplay the scale of the challenges posed by a regional war that is casting a heavy shadow over the security of the Strait of Hormuz, maritime insurance markets, and investment flows. Rather, it offers a structured attempt to address three interrelated core questions: how has the UAE historically navigated major crises; how did it anticipate the current crisis by fortifying its infrastructure and economic systems to sustain resilience; and, finally, how should the present moment be understood, not as signalling the end of a development model, but as marking the transition to a more mature and deeply embedded position within the global economy.

The geopolitical landscape has entered a critical and highly volatile inflection point, defined by deepening transatlantic divisions and an unprecedented destabilisation of the global security architecture. The outbreak of intense military confrontation in the Middle East has accelerated this fragmentation, as the United States initiated pre-emptive operations against Iran, prompting Tehran to retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz. Given the Strait’s pivotal role as a strategic artery for global energy supplies, the administration of President Donald Trump called on European members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to deploy naval units and provide military support to secure the passage. European capitals, however, rejected the request in a unified stance.   This refusal triggered a marked escalation in diplomatic tensions with the US administration. The European position rested on the absence of prior consultation and on a strategic assessment that classified the conflict as a discretionary war, falling outside the Alliance’s geographic remit and exceeding its defined defensive mandate. In response, the United States administration intensified its rhetoric, openly threatening withdrawal from NATO, describing the Alliance as a "paper tiger", and casting doubt on its military and political effectiveness.   This confrontation has transformed the prospect of a retrenchment in US security commitments from a theoretical possibility into a scenario under active strategic evaluation. Consequently, transatlantic relations have shifted from a framework of fixed commitments to one increasingly governed by transactional, interest-driven engagement. Assessing the likelihood of a US withdrawal, therefore, necessitates a comprehensive review of the governing international frameworks, the domestic constitutional constraints limiting executive authority, the military ramifications of withdrawal, and the potential future trajectories of Europe’s defence architecture.

Since late February 2026, the regional and international geopolitical landscape has entered a phase of accelerating military escalation following the outbreak of direct confrontation between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other. That conflict has triggered successive waves of missile and drone attacks, generating recurrent spillover effects that have directly affected the airspace of Gulf states, particularly the United Arab Emirates.   Although the United Arab Emirates’ defence and institutional infrastructure, particularly in Dubai, demonstrated exceptional resilience and an immediate operational response to these threats through the activation of advanced air defence systems and the careful, precautionary management of brief airspace closures to safeguard air navigation and civilian safety, the real crisis did not lie solely in the direct military dimension. It also extended into a highly complex information war.   These developments coincided with the strict enforcement of domestic cybercrime laws, which restricted the circulation of unauthorised images and video footage in an effort to prevent panic and protect national security. Yet this also created an opening that the Western media machine exploited strategically and systematically to dominate the flow of information and construct a distorted account of events.   Against this backdrop of stark divergence between the coherent reality on the ground and the remote narrative constructed around it, international media outlets, particularly the British tabloid press, turned into vehicles for an extraordinary degree of dramatization. What were, in reality, limited regional spillovers were presented as evidence of an imminent and inevitable collapse of Dubai’s entire economic and social model.   By adopting provocative and polarising headlines that flatly declared Dubai “finished”, and casting the crisis as the tragic collapse of the safe tax haven dream, these outlets embraced a line of analysis wholly detached from realities on the ground. Verified evidence of business continuity and the strength of the UAE’s security architecture was sidelined in favour of a pre-packaged disaster narrative. This shift demands a deeper analytical and historical examination of the mechanisms and the economic and political incentives that can drive media institutions away from their role as objective conveyors of fact and turn them into instruments for shaping global public opinion.

The long-standing efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine War were disturbed by the sudden outbreak of the U.S.-Israel-Iran War. The strikes carried out by the United States and Israel against Iran, and their broader spill-overs across the Middle East, have hindered the already difficult peace negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv. This escalation raises concerns about the extent to which the U.S.-Israel-Iran War could have on the broader geopolitical dynamics. This war risks diverting global attention away from efforts to resolve the Russia-Ukraine War and, at the same time, raises concerns about the extent to which it could reshape power dynamics and influence the trajectory of this war.

On Feb. 4, 2026, the New START Treaty ended without any incentive for renewal. On February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel initiated strikes on Iran, citing a lack of progress in the nuclear talks. This year has witnessed prominent incidents related to nuclear security, where states become more incentivised to develop their own nuclear capabilities and other nuclear states resist such direction. Additionally, global developments prove that traditional nuclear frameworks appear to be losing significance, with some states going further by resorting to violence to ensure their nuclear hegemony.   This development raises questions about the possibility of global shifts from traditional arms control treaties to a new nuclear arms control regime. A new phase of informal signalling and strategic forecasting could emerge, raising concerns about whether this form is sufficient to verify compliance. Such a potential new nuclear arms control regime could be unpredictable in terms of its application, effectiveness, the number of states willing to follow through, and more broadly, the path forward to ensure the world is not dragged into a nuclear war.

The global political and economic landscape is undergoing structural shifts following the outbreak of US and Israeli military operations against Iran in late February 2026. In response to this escalation, the Iranian leadership adopted a strategic decision to close the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping and oil tankers, leveraging its asymmetric capabilities, including naval mines, advanced missile systems, and drones, to transform the strait into an active military theatre.   The Strait of Hormuz constitutes a critical artery for global energy supplies, with approximately 20 million barrels of oil transiting through it daily, accounting for around 20% of global consumption, as well as shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The closure has produced immediate economic repercussions, including the suspension of maritime traffic, the withdrawal of insurance coverage by shipping insurers, and a sharp surge in oil prices, which have exceeded $120 per barrel. In an effort to contain the crisis, the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, proposed a diplomatic initiative to establish a secure maritime corridor in the Strait of Hormuz under United Nations supervision to ensure the safe flow of energy supplies.   Kallas’s initiative draws on the “Black Sea Initiative” model, which enabled the export of Ukrainian grain under international guarantees. European efforts are driven by concerns that disruptions to gas supplies could undermine global food production, given their direct linkage to fertiliser manufacturing. The initiative, therefore, seeks to insulate energy vessels from military targeting to preserve global economic stability. Against this backdrop, the central question arises: to what extent can this initiative help de-escalate the current crisis, and what alternatives remain should the Black Sea model prove unviable?

The strategic partnership between the United States (U.S.) and Israel has long demonstrated an exceptional ability to absorb and manage tactical divergences. Yet the developments accompanying the launch of the U.S. operation "Epic Fury," conducted in parallel with Israel’s "Visiting Lion" operation in late February 2026, have placed this alliance under an unprecedented test in the modern Middle East. Although this coordinated campaign initially achieved decisive operational successes, most notably the elimination of Iran’s Supreme Leader and the dismantling of the command structure of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the image of complete alignment projected by President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu conceals fundamental divergences in visions and objectives.   A careful reading of the historical trajectory of this relationship, alongside its current political constraints, suggests that a prolonged conflict will expose the sharp divergence in the strategic interests of the two capitals. As the confrontation shifts from rapid strikes to a complex regional war of attrition whose consequences extend beyond Washington and Tel Aviv, these differences are likely to evolve into deep structural fractures. This paper offers a strategic analysis of this emerging dynamic, arguing that the fundamental differences in the capacity to absorb economic repercussions, manage human losses, and navigate rigid electoral timelines will transform muted tactical disagreements into an overt strategic rift that will be increasingly difficult to contain or deny.

The U.S.-Israel and Iran War has affected the interests of many countries. In the last few days, China emerged as a significant player in these events. Beijing called for an immediate halt to the attacks by both sides and the protection of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, culminating with the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi pledging to send a special envoy to the Middle East for mediation.   Beijing has interconnected interests in the Middle East that are significantly affected by the war and will most likely reshape its strategic opportunities in the region, particularly in terms of energy security, trade routes, and diplomatic relations with key regional players. Beijing’s pragmatic foreign policy approach toward the region relies on protecting its economic interests and maintaining a strategic balance. So, the war could provide an opportunity for China to navigate new opportunities in the region and, consequently, expand its influence, particularly by strengthening ties with other oil-producing nations and increasing its investments in reconstruction efforts.   Likewise, China’s strategic partnership with Iran mainly revolves around oil supply and large-scale investments. The consequences of the war raise questions about the future of this relationship and the possibility that China may reshape its foreign policy toward Tehran if it faces a potential decline in Iran’s ability to sustain such interests as a result of the strain on its power after the war.

The fundamental character of modern aerospace warfare has undergone an irreversible paradigm shift, transitioning abruptly from the deployment of exquisite, highly survivable platforms to the brutal arithmetic of industrial attrition and affordable mass. This operational reality was starkly illuminated in late February 2026, with the commencement of Operation Epic Fury by the United States Armed Forces and the parallel Operation Roaring Lion executed by the Israel Defence Forces.   Following the collapse of nuclear negotiations, the allied coalition launched a massive preemptive military campaign. Deploying an overwhelming concentration of aerospace assets, the coalition struck over one thousand strategic targets deep within Iranian territory during the opening twenty-four hours. United States forces executed over nine hundred individual precision strikes in the first twelve hours alone, utilising stealth bombers, naval fighters, and cruise missiles, escalating to more than one thousand, two hundred, and fifty targeted strikes within forty-eight hours. Simultaneously, the Israeli Air Force conducted over seven hundred sorties on the first day, dropping more than one thousand two hundred munitions to achieve immediate tactical successes and air superiority.   However, the immediate and sustained retaliation by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, designated Operation True Promise IV, has placed an unprecedented and mathematically gruelling strain on the allied integrated air and missile defence architecture. Within the first forty-eight hours of the conflict, the adversary entente launched roughly four hundred and twenty medium-range ballistic missiles targeting many countries in the region. This barrage was accompanied by massive swarms of loitering munitions. The staggering depletion rates of multimillion-dollar interceptors and precision strike munitions against high-volume, low-cost adversary threats have exposed a profound mathematical vulnerability in contemporary military logistics. As the global defence industrial base proves incapable of replenishing these exquisite arsenals at the speed of combat consumption, both the allied coalition and the adversary entente are confronting a rapidly approaching logistical exhaustion horizon. To continue the war and secure a decisive strategic victory, it is an absolute strategic imperative for both sides to aggressively substitute these high-end, legacy assets with scalable, cost-asymmetric alternatives, pivoting their operational doctrines toward deployable mass and continuous attritional endurance.