“Nothing should be ruled out” said French President Emmanuel Macron when asked about possibilities of sending troops to Ukraine. By speaking about going to war, Macron may have aimed to dispel a long-standing joke about the French always surrendering. However, both French and NATO leaders have publicly rejected the idea of sending European or alliance troops to Ukraine. Prominent figures such as U.S. President Joseph Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, and others have asserted that such action is not on the table. The widespread domestic and regional opposition implies that even if Macron was genuinely considering sending troops to Ukraine, he would not receive the necessary support for such a radical decision.

Since the 16th century, the Black Sea has always been a lake of tensions. Contrary to the Wars of The Holy League, in which the Ottoman Empire witnessed its first territorial loss, the contemporary situation signals Turkish gains in the region. The ongoing war in Ukraine has revived the Montreux Convention which gives Ankara the higher hand in the Black Sea and led other NATO members to appreciate the indispensable Turkish role. Recently, developments in the Black Sea ranging from decaying Russian power to Western apprehension are offering Ankara some Turkish delights.

This article was originally published on Ahram Online on Jan. 31, 2024.   The attack on the Santa Maria church in Istanbul is the first attack on Turkey claimed by IS since 2017. According to the Islamic State's statement, the attack was a response to one of its leaders instructing for the attack on "Jews and Christians". However, the end goal of the attack remains unclear and that raises questions about the legitimacy of IS’s claim. Over the last decade, the world has witnessed a sharp rise in terrorist attacks often claimed by terrorist groups striving to establish their relevance and influence over international politics. In fact, between 1998 and 2016, an estimated 16% of attacks were falsely claimed.

Al Habtoor Research Centre's Commentary articles allow researchers to provide quick, informed responses to ongoing topics, emphasizing personal perspectives and expert opinions without the weight of exhaustive citations. This ensures agility in addressing rapidly evolving subjects and enriches the discourse with authentic insights.   As of the 13th of Jan. 2024, Taiwan has elected a new president, Lai Ching-te, a member of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) nationalist party. Despite Taiwan being a relatively small country, who is only recognized as an independent state by 13 countries, its elections will have global ramifications. Chinese claims over the strait of Taiwan are nothing new, however, having a new president who has been dubbed as a “trouble maker” by Xi Jinping could act as the initial spark of a new war in 2024.

Ramifications of the Israeli-Hamas War have not been confined within Gaza or the Middle East’s borders. Polarisation over the Palestinian cause has reached a new character especially in the Western world where such a trend has never been as deep. Cracks within governments and societies can be traced to a volatility of values, exposure to social media, and demographic changes. With such an unprecedented divide over Western governments tolerating Israeli impunity in Gaza, the West is faced with a moral dilemma which might cost it it’s claimed “moral superiority”.

While hosting approximately four million Syrian refugees, Ankara no longer maintains its previous reputation as a warm and welcoming host. A series of events have indicated a growing trend that can be described as "Anti-Arabism," while simultaneously, the historical animosity towards Jews is waning. It is suggested that the former trend may be feeding into the latter. Due to a substantial influx of migrants and a challenging economic situation, refugees of Arabic descent appear to have become scapegoats, surpassing Jews as the primary target for hate speech and hostility in the country. These two trends might be interconnected, and understanding their underlying factors and the evolution of this phenomenon demands careful consideration.

Many analysts argue that Washington is losing its position as the only global hegemon with the rise of other Great Powers in the international arena. The relative demise of the American superpower paves the way for the end of an exceptional era of a Uni-Polar system and the rise of either a Bi-Polar or a Multi-Polar one. Arguments usually revolve around the rise of Russia and China as the main rivals to the United States. However, in this analysis, we argue that the Russian side is better to avoid being considered for such a competition for being involved in a hectic war which requires a sweeping victory for Moscow to compensate for heavy economic losses. China, on the other hand, is gaining momentum on the diplomatic and, to a lesser extent, the security front as new territories for Beijing ever to set foot on. Nevertheless, it is also the case that Washington is still maintaining its supremacy in major arms sales. The Middle East proved to be of paramount importance in the competition among great powers. With Beijing, Washington, and even Moscow trying to gain some influence, countries of the region have been shifting their foreign policies to be more independent to maximise benefits from the newly established world order. Accordingly, they are playing the rebalancing game which stipulates balancing powers mainly between the United States and China.

With the date of Turkish elections coming soon, Turkish president and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) are facing one of the most serious challenges since the year they came to power. Namely, inflation exceeded 80% in September 2022 and Turkish Lira plummeted in the face of American Dollar. These economic hardships are leading the prospects of a political change to peak. According to polls, Erdogan is in real trouble with the AKP receiving barely 29.5% of votes. Accordingly, Erdogan and his allies resorted to the Nationalist rhetoric knowing that it is an important card when it comes to attracting Turkish citizens’ votes. Turkish Nationalism is believed to be nurtured by Kurdish uprisings and the belief in the “revival” of the Ottoman empire. Next May, general elections are to be held in the middle of the aforementioned atmosphere which threatens Erdogan's legacy. Using the same nationalist tactic as he used in 2018, will the Turkish President succeed again or it is a burned card not useful anymore?

Migration is becoming an important area of bilateral and multilateral diplomatic relations. Examples include intergovernmental agreements to limit, or encourage migratory flow, the preferential treatment to certain foreign nationals, the creation of temporary labor migration laws, and so on. However, the term migration diplomacy can go beyond agreements between states to include diplomatic tools states use in order to extract benefits from other states. It is linked to how cross-border populations’ flow is linked to states’ diplomatic goals. Accordingly, states can leverage their position in the migratory process. In this regard, states can either be considered a Sending state, a Receiving state “also known as destination countries” or a Transit state. Sending countries are usually under-developed ones from which people tend to migrate from due to a myriad of “push factors” such as social, cultural, economic and even climate change reasons; diplomacy in this case is to be called Emigration diplomacy. Receiving countries are the more developed ones to be targeted as destination for immigrants wishing to find better living condition; hence, Immigration diplomacy. Finally, Transit countries are considered an intermediary solution to those who flee their countries of origin aiming to reach another country. However, for some reasons, mainly geographical ones, they tend to settle in a ‘third state’ for temporarily as a transit for their final destination.   In this analysis, it will be discussed how migration diplomacy can be useful especially for transit states who can always leverage on their geographical positions by obtaining concessions from receiving states who which to stop migratory flows from reaching either their shores or their borders. At the first part, it will be demonstrated how have some transit states benefitted from their position. At the second part, the Tunisian case will be discussed. Tunisia, as a vital corridor for Sub-Saharan emigrants aiming for reaching European borders through the Italian shores, falls under the umbrella of a transit state. Given its current severe economic situation, Tunisia can grab the opportunity and use migration flows as a source of income rather than scapegoating them for the country’s problems.

China has been considered as the main threat to the current world order maintained by Western powers. It became clear when the U.S. for the first time identified Beijing as its “number one challenge” and NATO members included the same country in its “strategic concept”. China has long advertised for itself as a trading partner for many countries with no political interests. For years, world leaders have accepted this propaganda created by the Chinese and perceived the Asian giant as only an economic competitor. However, it seems that Beijing has decided to break up with its old strategy of “hiding our capabilities”, known as taoguang yanghui (韬光养晦).   Lately, China has been engaging in diplomatic initiatives such as the peace plan aimed at ending the war in Ukraine as well as brokering the process of normalizing relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, leading to Western apprehension from rising Chinese diplomatic power as they understand that altruism has no space in politics. Analysts have been trying to identify the new role to be played by Beijing relying on the concepts coined by William T.R. Fox which concludes that China is not a superpower but it is only a regional power for not being able to deploy military forces overseas. Nevertheless, we argue, contesting prevalent IR theories, that in the new world order, economic might could be enough weapons to extract global political influence. In other words, the contemporary definition of a superpower is different from the one coined by Fox.

Securitizing an issue means simply, designating an issue as of an extreme danger to be dealt with urgently. The theory of securitization stipulates that national security policies are not given but are formulated by policy makers mainly through their uttered words. Accordingly, narratives given by policy makers frame issues as either a security threat, a mere challenge or even an opportunity. The same issue can be mentioned by the same political leader once as a security threat that the nation should mitigate at some point and an asset at another. Migration is one of those issues which governments either give a securitizing polish or none at all. In this analysis, the argument goes that “national interests” made-up from economic and political conditions are the main factors in deciding the given frame.

The earthquake which hit the southern Turkish territories in February 2023 proved that natural disasters taking place in the 21st century do not only result in piles of deaths and injuries but also political ramifications take place. When the earthquake hit Turkey, politicians understood that it is an opportunity to capitalize on for achieving delayed political aims. On the domestic level, opposition parties started to accuse the current president and his government with poor crisis management while trying to tilt the playing field in their favor before the general elections scheduled in May. On the international front, issues such as NATO enlargement, bilateral relations with Greece and the delayed F-16 deal have taken the larger space in the discussions which came after the earthquake. Accordingly, the natural disaster proved to be a political tool that should not be missed by contemporary politicians.

After the so-called Arab spring, different narratives have come out about the reformation and the rebuilding of the Arab states in the aftermath of changing their political systems. However, different narratives coming from global powers such as the European Union endorse the importance of prioritizing democracy for the process of reformation while on the other hand in-depth observation of the current policies of those states reveals that they are prioritizing Economic and military stability over democracy and here comes the paradox; “what should come first in the process of reforming Arab states”. Importantly, if reform necessitates popular satisfaction in order to be sustainable, would democracy still constitute the goal policy makers, supposedly, should work to achieve?

The bilateral relations between Türkiye and Iran have always been one of the most unique in the world of international relations. Although pigmented with a number of clashes over several issues, ad-hoc points of cooperation intervene to stand in the face of building an animosity between the two states. With geopolitical changes taking place recently, it deserves to study whether the “marriage of inconvenience” between the two states will continue or it will at some point be disrupted. In this analysis, both points of contention and cooperation will be discussed showing the shape the relations between the two states have been taking paving the way for understanding the persistence of the current pattern.

June 2022, the European Commission announced granting Ukraine the status of a candidate country to the European Union. Nevertheless, problems concerning Ukraine such as their struggle with their economy and political system, are still on the agenda. Giving the candidacy status to Ukraine has been criticized since Ukraine is still regarded as a weak country and not yet eligible for such a status especially when compared with other European candidates. European accession is granted after an assessment process based on what is known as Copenhagen criteria. European officials have announced that the accession process will be done by the book and merit based. In the same vein, the commission has granted Moldova the same status which is, the same as Ukraine, considered part of Russia’s sphere of influence. Keeping all this in mind, in the light of Russian war in Ukraine, it is a valid question to ask whether Ukraine candidacy is merit based or politicized. Is the fifth enlargement scenario of the accession of incompetent Bulgaria and Romania as a reward for their role in Kosovo war is being repeated with Ukraine? Considering this, the analysis is going to examine why Ukraine was accepted as a candidate. Drawing on European Commission’s reports, it will be discovered which of Copenhagen criteria are fulfilled by Ukraine. Copenhagen Criteria are:   Stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities (Political Criteria) A functioning market economy and the ability to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the EU (Economic Criteria) The ability to take on the obligations of membership, including the capacity to effectively implement the rules, standards and policies that make up the body of EU law (the ‘acquis’), and adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union.

Nuclear cooperation attracts international and regional attention, many Arab countries have aspired to produce clean nuclear energy and have either begun or are seeking to join the nuclear energy club. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) , Egypt, and Jordan, are the frontrunners in the Middle East and therefore will be the focus of this paper. Nuclear power is an international industry in terms of operation, supply chains, and vendors, as well as nuclear safety, non-proliferation and waste management, therefore, there is an ongoing need for cooperation and collaboration between states. This cooperation can include sharing technical expertise and nuclear technology, establishing agreements that facilitate nuclear exports, agreements on nuclear safety and standards, and collaboration with regulatory frameworks.   The paper employs horizontal or environmental scanning to analyse the current position of nuclear energy in each country and their preparedness for nuclear cooperation, as well as existing models of nuclear cooperation in other regions. Thereafter, the paper explores the different incentives countries may have for engaging in nuclear cooperation, including the potential benefits to be gained. A SWOT analysis is used to structure the environmental scanning, evaluating the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats within each country with regards to their potential role and contribution to nuclear cooperation in addition to an overall SWOT analysis of the countries as a whole with regards to the prospect of ongoing collaboration.   The paper is divided into three chapters; the first chapter provides an overview of nuclear energy in each of the selected countries, the second chapter examines existing models of nuclear cooperation and analyses the different enabling factors which will later be used to identify opportunities for Arab nuclear collaboration, and the third chapter analyses the various economic, political, and security incentives that would drive countries to seek cooperation or that can be used to advocate for greater collaboration among policymakers.   A cooperation model is produced as a result of this analysis, highlighting key characteristics of the ideal regional partnership. Three scenarios for Arab nuclear cooperation are evaluated to demonstrate what could occur if this proposed cooperation occurs, how it would happen, and the scenarios of no collaboration or limited cooperation.