18 Jun 2025

Flashpoints and Fallout: Assessing Regional Nuclear Threats

The threat of nuclear weapons, once seemingly receding with the end of the Cold War, has resurged with alarming intensity. A renewed nuclear arms race and a dangerous erosion of the norms and treaties...
15 Jun 2025

Why Did Iran Fail to Repel Operation Rising Lion?

Operation Rising Lion, executed by Israel on June 13, 2025, constituted a lightning strike aimed at crippling the very core of Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure. Israeli Prime Minister ...
15 Jun 2025

The Erosion of Iranian Deterrence

Between June 13 and 14, 2025, Israel executed one of the most daring and sophisticated military operations in its contemporary history: a multi-pronged aerial strike that penetrated deep into Iranian ...
14 Jun 2025

Strategic Assessment: The “Rising Lion” Strike and the Reshaping of Regional Security in the Middle East

On June 13, 2025, Israel launched an unprecedented and overt military operation against Iran, codenamed “Operation Rising Lion”, marking a decisive shift in its strategic doctrine regardin...
12 Jun 2025

Clandestine Axis of Middle East Hegemony: Iran, Israel, and the US

In George Orwell’s classic 1984, his world was held together by unending war: In the book, messages of hate and reasons to fear were broadcast each day to encourage fearful, slavish masses to ra...

Programmes

What If: The US Economy Collapses?

28 May 2025
Global trade tensions, supply chain disruptions, and skyrocketing costs are some of the unprecedented effects caused by U.S. president Donald Trump’s second term aggressive tariff policies. Tariff policies' impact goes beyond being just hypothetical, with real-time predictions and forecasts that more severe effects could follow; the global GDP is expected to slowly grow by only 2.2% in 2025, while the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has warned of a possible global recession, given that growth slips below 2.5%. Not only the UNCTAD but also the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its outlook for the global economy to 2.8% in 2025 and made a significant revision for the U.S. economy lowering its 2025 growth projection to 1.8% in April from 2.7% in January. Adding to these concerns, the World Trade Organization has already highlighted a sharp deterioration in global trade prospects, with world merchandise trade now expected to decline by 0.2% in 2025, nearly three percentage points lower than previous forecasts.   The current instabilities go beyond the economic aspect; they also affect the U.S.’s international alliances and add additional burdens to households, many of whom are delaying major life decisions. A pressing question amid recession fears arises: What are the impacts on a global scale in the event of a U.S. economic collapse? Given the leading position the U.S. plays as the world’s largest economy and the leading issuer of primary reserve currency, such a downturn would trigger a financial disaster of unparalleled magnitude. Essentially, if the U.S.’s economy falls, the world’s economy falls with it. Imagine waking up a few years from now, pulling out your phone, and seeing the headline: "U.S. Economy in Freefall: Markets Collapsed Overnight." It begins as a distant rumble, as if a story is taking place somewhere else. But then you go to get your morning coffee, and the price has tripled. Your investment app reveals that your life savings have been devastated. Overseas, factories that rely on American consumers come to a standstill, leaving entire villages jobless. The USD, once the cornerstone of global banking, has collapsed, provoking wild currency wars as governments try to preserve their own. Suddenly, that far-off catastrophe isn't so far away; it's emptying your wallet, increasing your grocery cost, and endangering your basic existence. This isn't just a headline; it's a chilling, global economic winter, its icy grip felt in every home, on every continent, for generations. Are we truly prepared for such a cataclysm?

The Erosion of Iranian Deterrence

15 Jun 2025
Between June 13 and 14, 2025, Israel executed one of the most daring and sophisticated military operations in its contemporary history: a multi-pronged aerial strike that penetrated deep into Iranian sovereign territory in an unprecedented fashion. The offensive targeted critical nuclear infrastructure, including the Natanz and Fordow enrichment facilities, alongside additional military installations near Isfahan. Furthermore, the operation struck key airbases integral to Iran’s air defence network, most notably Hamadan and Tabriz airfields. In parallel, Israeli forces targeted senior leadership within both the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the conventional military, with subsequent intelligence assessments confirming direct hits and casualties among Iran’s high command.   Iran's response, though swift, bore the hallmarks of operational improvisation. Seeking to reassert deterrence and project resilience, Tehran launched over one hundred unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) on the same day, primarily of the Shahed-136 and Shahed-131 variants. These drones traversed approximately 2,000 kilometres through Iraqi and Syrian airspace. However, the majority failed to reach Israeli territory. Instead, they were intercepted by a multi-layered defensive network composed of Jordanian, Saudi, and Israeli air defence systems, all heavily supported by U.S. early-warning and tracking technologies. A large number were neutralized over Iraq’s Anbar province and the deserts of Jordan, while others were downed over northern Saudi Arabia.   On June 14, Iran escalated by launching its principal retaliatory strike in the form of a large-scale, coordinated ballistic missile attack. Over 150 ballistic missiles were deployed, prominently including Ghadr-110 (with a range of up to 3,000 km), Khorramshahr, and Sejjil-2—among the most advanced systems in Iran’s medium-range missile arsenal. These missiles targeted multiple sites deep inside Israeli territory. A notable strike occurred near Israel’s Ministry of Defence compound in the Kirya complex in central Tel Aviv, where one missile reportedly caused structural damage and minor injuries, though no fatalities among military personnel were confirmed. Additional missiles struck civilian infrastructure in Tel Aviv, Ramat Gan, and Rishon LeZion, injuring several individuals—one critically—with the majority suffering only mild to moderate wounds.   Despite the magnitude of the missile barrage, the strategic yield fell significantly short of Tehran’s expectations. This underperformance prompted Iranian authorities to broaden the scope of their confrontation, issuing explicit warnings that U.S. military assets across the region—particularly in the Gulf—would henceforth be considered legitimate targets. These threats referenced high-value installations such as Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Al Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates, and U.S. military positions in Iraq, including Ain al-Asad and Camp Victoria in Baghdad, as well as naval facilities in Bahrain.   From Iran’s strategic vantage point, any U.S. involvement—especially in reinforcing Israeli air defences—constitutes direct participation in the hostilities. This rationale is now used to justify Tehran’s threats to strike American military positions across the Gulf. The implications of this shift are profound: for the first time since 2020, the prospect of open military confrontation in the Persian Gulf has become a credible geopolitical scenario. The regional deterrence equation, long balanced on latent threat and calculated ambiguity, has now entered a phase of dangerous volatility.   This analysis seeks to offer a comprehensive examination of the strategic motivations underpinning Iran’s threats to target U.S. military bases in the Gulf region. By synthesizing operational data—namely, Iran’s patterns of ballistic missile and drone deployment—with broader structural dynamics of regional and international power distribution, to elucidate the strategic logic through which American military installations in the Gulf emerge as priority targets within Iran’s evolving deterrence doctrine.

Why Did Iran Fail to Repel Operation Rising Lion?

15 Jun 2025
Operation Rising Lion, executed by Israel on June 13, 2025, constituted a lightning strike aimed at crippling the very core of Iran's nuclear and military infrastructure. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu characterised this pre-emptive operation as a necessary measure to "roll back the Iranian threat to Israel's very survival," drawing upon the Begin Doctrine previously brought to bear in analogous strikes against Iraq in 1981 and Syria in 2007. The operation's objectives were marked by strategic multiplicity and diversity, encompassing the targeting of numerous nuclear facilities, alongside senior Iranian military commanders and nuclear scientists, in an endeavour to inflict maximum damage upon Iran's military and nuclear capabilities. Israel's intent was not merely confined to disrupting the nuclear program; it extended to undermining Iran's capacity to mount retaliatory assaults and to fend off future waves of Israeli attacks.   The timing of the Israeli operation came on the heels of a meticulous assessment by the Israeli leadership, which had concluded that Iran was on the cusp of achieving a dangerous breakthrough in its pursuit of nuclear weaponry, thereby necessitating the exploitation of a narrow temporal window before Iranian nuclear facilities became either too advanced or too robustly protected. In this context, this analysis aims to delve into the rationale underpinning the operation, to account for Tehran's apparent failure to parry the assault effectively, and to examine the attack's repercussions on Iran's domestic landscape. Furthermore, it seeks to investigate the potential pathways Iran might pursue to reconstitute its deterrent capability.

Most Read

The 2025 European Blackout: Grid Fragility, Renewables, and Lessons for the Middle East
Programmes
30 Apr 2025

The 2025 European Blackout: Grid Fragility, Renewables, and Lessons for the Middle East

On April 28 2025, Europe experienced one of its most disruptive technological collapses in modern history. A sudden, cascading failure of the power grid cut off electricity all over Spain, Portugal, parts of France, Germany, and Italy, immobilising vital infrastructure such metro systems, airports, hospitals, and telecommunications. Spain alone suffered an unmatched 15 GW loss in five seconds, reducing roughly 60% of its power need. Emergency states were declared; recovery, albeit quick in some areas, revealed systematic weaknesses in the European energy framework that resonate far outside the continent.
Sanctions and Self-Sufficiency: The Evolution of Iran’s Manufacturing Sector
Programmes
10 Mar 2025

Sanctions and Self-Sufficiency: The Evolution of Iran’s Manufacturing Sector

For decades, Western countries, especially the United States (U.S.), used sanctions as a common tool to promote democracy and prevent certain nations from developing nuclear or chemical weapons. Iran, due to its efforts to develop nuclear weapons and other advanced technological weapons, has become a prime example, facing one of the strictest sanctions regimes in the world since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. These measures including the U.N. Security Council embargoes in 2007 and 2015, have had a major impact on Iran’s economy. However, alongside the economic hardship, sanctions have also spurred the growth of a domestic manufacturing sector, especially in defence and military industries, demonstrating the country’s capacity to adapt to hardship.
Hezbollah 2.0: The Future of the Party in Lebanon
Programmes
8 May 2025

Hezbollah 2.0: The Future of the Party in Lebanon

Hezbollah stands at a pivotal crossroads, navigating the turbulent aftermath of a devastating conflict with Israel and grappling with profound shifts in its domestic politics and the regional strategic map. The cessation of hostilities, marked by a U.S.-brokered ceasefire effective Nov. 27, 2024, brought an end to intense fighting that inflicted immense human suffering and infrastructural damage across the country. This fragile peace coincided with, and was significantly influenced by two seismic events: the sudden collapse of the al-Assad regime in Syria, severing Hezbollah’s critical land bridge to Iran, and the end of a paralyzing two-year presidential vacuum in Lebanon with the election of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) Commander General Joseph Aoun, who has promised to dismantle Hezbollah’s military structure and restrict access to weapons, these promises were likely possible to make because of Hezbollah's significantly weakened state.   The 2024 conflict dealt an unprecedented blow to Hezbollah, resulting in the decapitation of its leadership, including longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah and his designated successor; the death of thousands of its fighters; the depletion of its arsenal; and the destruction of vital military infrastructure. This military degradation precipitated a tangible decline in its political influence. Regionally isolated by the fall of its Syrian ally and unable to dictate terms domestically, facing the state signaling a potential shift in Lebanon's internal power dynamics.   Faced with military exhaustion, regional isolation, domestic political setbacks, and a core narrative of "resistance" severely challenged by the reality of defeat, Hezbollah confronts an existential crisis. The organization that emerged from the 2024 conflict is fundamentally different from the one that entered it. This analysis, probes the future trajectory of Hezbollah in this drastically altered landscape to understand how Hezbollah might adapt, survive, or transform in the face of these compounding pressures, and the constraints facing the Lebanese state and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) in asserting sovereignty, the divergent perspectives shaping the political discourse, and the plausible future pathways for Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Navigating the Thaw: Scenarios for the US-Iran Negotiations
Programmes
10 Apr 2025

Navigating the Thaw: Scenarios for the US-Iran Negotiations

The geopolitical landscape in the Middle East is set for a potentially major shift with US President Donald Trump’s announcement of the resumption of negotiations between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran, scheduled to begin on April 12, 2025. Following a period marked by escalating bilateral tensions and the effective dissolution of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), this resumption of dialogue has generated considerable anticipation both within Iran and across the wider region. The initial, albeit potentially transient, positive reactions observed in Tehran’s financial markets, as evidenced by movements in the stock market and gold prices, underscore the profound economic implications these discussions could hold for the Iranian populace. Furthermore, the potential for these negotiations to influence broader regional stability is a matter of significant concern and interest even for the nations within the Arabian Gulf. While the precise modalities of these diplomatic engagements – specifically whether they will entail direct bilateral talks, as suggested by the U.S. administration, or proceed indirectly through intermediary channels – remain subject to clarification, the very initiation of dialogue signifies a notable departure from the recent trajectory of U.S.-Iran relations. This analysis will therefore explore a range of plausible scenarios that may unfold as delegations from the United States and Iran convene on April 12, and consider the salient internal political dynamics within both nations, the prevailing external pressures exerted by regional and international actors, and the specific contextual factors that have contributed to this renewed, albeit cautious, engagement.
Silent Annexation: The Fate of Southern Syria
Programmes
13 Mar 2025

Silent Annexation: The Fate of Southern Syria

Caught in the crosscurrents of escalating regional and international rivalries, and witnessing an increasingly assertive Israeli presence, Southern Syria stands at a critical juncture. Ambiguity hangs heavy in the air, obscuring the long-term trajectory of a land grappling with fractured governance, demographic shifts, and the looming threat of further fragmentation. As international and regional actors jostle for influence and advantage, Israel's expansionist ambitions in the south proceed with a disconcerting sense of ease, guided by a methodical strategy and far-reaching objectives. This expansion, however, is not merely territorial; it is reshaping the very fabric of Southern Syria, impacting its social and demographic tapestry, and transforming it into a volatile arena for regional proxy conflicts. Meanwhile, the Syrian state, nominally in Damascus, grapples with deep-seated internal divisions and a diminished capacity to exert meaningful control, potentially paving the way for negative scenarios that threaten the nation's already fragile unity and sovereignty. This analysis aims to dissect these complex transformations, illuminating Israel’s calculated strategy, assessing the internal vulnerabilities of Syria, and anticipating the potential risks that lie ahead for this strategically vital, yet increasingly precarious, region.

Publications

The Blog

Strategic Assessment: The “Rising Lion” Strike and the Reshaping of Regional Security in the Middle East

14 Jun 2025

Visual Content Designer

28 May 2025

A Turning Point in Gaza: Allies’ Ultimatum May Shift the Calculus

25 May 2025

The 2025 European Blackout: Grid Fragility, Renewables, and Lessons for the Middle East

30 Apr 2025

Canada’s Elections in the Shadow of Trump

29 Apr 2025

Early Warning Researcher

27 Apr 2025

Political Researcher

27 Apr 2025

Lebanon: A Pattern of Escalation in the Middle East

23 Mar 2025

Emergency Arab Summit: The End of Gaza’s Suffering?

25 Feb 2025

Lebanon’s Golden Opportunity: A New Era with General Joseph Aoun

15 Jan 2025

HMPV: Political Weapon or Health Threat?

8 Jan 2025

What is Next for Syria?

10 Dec 2024

Dubai Future Forum, 2024

24 Nov 2024

A New US President… A New Middle East!

10 Nov 2024

The UAE’s Vision for Peace in the Region

24 Sep 2024

Restoring Lost Deterrence: Pager Explosions in Lebanon

18 Sep 2024

Al Karamah Crossing Incident: Individual Act or Growing Resistance?

11 Sep 2024

Political Consequences of Germany’s Local Election

3 Sep 2024

Will Germany’s Political Shift Alter Europe’s Stance on Ukraine?

3 Sep 2024

The Economic Ramifications of Israel’s Pre-emptive Strikes on Hezbollah

25 Aug 2024

What is Happening in Britain?

8 Aug 2024

The Assassination of Ismail Haniyeh: Implications for the Region

31 Jul 2024

The Attempted Assassination of Donald Trump

15 Jul 2024

BRICSPHONE: A Cultural Call to Unity to End Western Hegemony

8 Jul 2024

How Can New Think Tanks Navigate & Thrive in Changing Landscapes?

1 Jul 2024

BRICS Experts Forum 2024 “The Role of the BRICS in the Search for a New World Order”

26 Jun 2024

Security and Stability in the Mediterranean in Athens, Greece 2024

13 Jun 2024

What’s Next for Iran?

20 May 2024

Global Navigation Systems and Houthi Missiles

19 Feb 2024

Taiwan’s Elections: What Does it Bring for the World?

14 Jan 2024

Israel and the ICJ: Resuscitating Global Order

11 Jan 2024

Scrolling Through Their Childhood: Social Media’s Deep Impact on Coming Generations

20 Nov 2023

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