13 Jul 2025

From Isolationism to Intervention: Trump’s MENA U-Turn

The inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the United States for his second term took place on Jan. 20, 2025. Trump outlined a wide-ranging agenda that blends traditional conservative. ...
13 Jul 2025

Iran’s Enriched Uranium: A Potential Flashpoint for A Renewed Conflict

Recent military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have reignited global concerns over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. Over 12 days, the region witnessed a direct military confrontation between Iran an...
10 Jul 2025

The Militarisation of European Politics

In the wake of the recent NATO summit, European leaders have committed to a landmark pledge: raising defence spending to 5% of GDP. Hailed by its backers as a historic move, the agreement reflects a s...
10 Jul 2025

Sports Diplomacy and the Reduction of Global Political Tensions

Sports diplomacy is not something new. It can be traced back to the ancient Olympic Games, when Greek city-states suspended conflicts to compete peacefully. The modern Olympic movement, revived in 189...
10 Jul 2025

Futurescapes Issue 3 – Noah’s Ark Reimagined: Decoding Tomorow’s Crises

In an era marked by rapid transformations and mounting threats, it is no longer sufficient to merely bear witness to disasters after they unfold. The imperative now is to cultivate anticipatory vision...

Programmes

The Militarisation of European Politics

10 Jul 2025
In the wake of the recent NATO summit, European leaders have committed to a landmark pledge: raising defence spending to 5% of GDP. Hailed by its backers as a historic move, the agreement reflects a sharp shift in European threat perception, driven not only by Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine but also by the renewed pressure from Washington under the return of the Trump presidency. The "Trump effect" has reignited long-standing fears over the reliability of U.S. security guarantees, pushing Europe to take on greater defence responsibilities.   But while the pledge signals a tougher European posture, it raises pressing concerns. Can Europe realistically meet such ambitious targets without undermining the very democratic model it seeks to defend? As defence budgets grow, many fear this could come at the cost of welfare, social cohesion, and democratic checks, exposing the continent to a deeper risk: the creeping militarisation of European politics and the erosion of its democratic dividend.

From Isolationism to Intervention: Trump’s MENA U-Turn

13 Jul 2025
The inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the United States for his second term took place on Jan. 20, 2025. Trump outlined a wide-ranging agenda that blends traditional conservative. Notably, he signed 26 executive orders on Inauguration Day which is the highest number by any U.S. president to sign on that day. Trump’s second-term agenda has focus mainly under the banner of “Making America First,” “retribution” and “law and order.” He aimed at aggressively reshaping the Federal Government, restoring hardline policies from his first term, and shift America’s global role through protectionism and reduced international engagement.   Trump had emphasizes avoiding foreign wars and promoting a non-interventionist foreign policy focusing instead on border security and economic growth. He opposed “endless wars” and advocated reducing the U.S. military presence abroad. He repeatedly stated that the U.S. should avoid costly wars in the Middle East that lack clear American interests, using slogans like “We are not the world’s policeman” and “End the endless wars.” He sharply criticized previous administrations for prolonged military engagements in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria.   However, despite these promises made during his 2024 campaign, Trump’s actions in office have diverged significantly from his non-interventionist stance.

Iran’s Enriched Uranium: A Potential Flashpoint for A Renewed Conflict

13 Jul 2025
Recent military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have reignited global concerns over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. Over 12 days, the region witnessed a direct military confrontation between Iran and Israel, accompanied by U.S. airstrikes on critical sites in Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. Iran responded by launching retaliatory attacks on the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.   While Washington declared the “complete destruction” of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, subsequent assessments suggest these operations fell short of their strategic goals. Key elements of the Fordow facility, including vital centrifuge systems, remained partially operational, preserving a significant portion of Iran’s nuclear capability.   Growing uncertainty surrounds the fate of Iran’s highly enriched uranium, particularly after the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that approximately 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% are unaccounted for—a volume theoretically sufficient to produce multiple nuclear warheads. Iranian authorities acknowledged relocating this material to “secure locations” ahead of the strikes. However, Western intelligence sources indicate that locating and neutralising these hidden stockpiles through military means remains exceedingly difficult.   This ambiguity intensifies the risks of nuclear proliferation and grants Tehran a potent strategic asset in any future diplomatic negotiations, while keeping the spectre of renewed military escalation ever-present.   Given these circumstances, Iran’s nuclear programme appears to have endured only a temporary disruption. Tehran retains the technical expertise and human infrastructure necessary to reconstruct its facilities and resume enrichment efforts. As such, the unknown status of the enriched uranium now emerges as a critical variable that could shape the region’s security landscape. Should Iran revive its nuclear activities—or should external actors attempt to strike these undisclosed caches—the result could be a new flashpoint in the ongoing confrontation between Iran and Israel.   This analysis examines the disparity between political declarations proclaiming the end of Iran’s nuclear threat and the ground realities that suggest its persistence. It explores the strategic implications of enriched uranium remaining outside international oversight, as well as the broader consequences for regional stability and the evolution of conflict in the Middle East.

Most Read

The 2025 European Blackout: Grid Fragility, Renewables, and Lessons for the Middle East
Programmes
30 Apr 2025

The 2025 European Blackout: Grid Fragility, Renewables, and Lessons for the Middle East

On April 28 2025, Europe experienced one of its most disruptive technological collapses in modern history. A sudden, cascading failure of the power grid cut off electricity all over Spain, Portugal, parts of France, Germany, and Italy, immobilising vital infrastructure such metro systems, airports, hospitals, and telecommunications. Spain alone suffered an unmatched 15 GW loss in five seconds, reducing roughly 60% of its power need. Emergency states were declared; recovery, albeit quick in some areas, revealed systematic weaknesses in the European energy framework that resonate far outside the continent.
Sanctions and Self-Sufficiency: The Evolution of Iran’s Manufacturing Sector
Programmes
10 Mar 2025

Sanctions and Self-Sufficiency: The Evolution of Iran’s Manufacturing Sector

For decades, Western countries, especially the United States (U.S.), used sanctions as a common tool to promote democracy and prevent certain nations from developing nuclear or chemical weapons. Iran, due to its efforts to develop nuclear weapons and other advanced technological weapons, has become a prime example, facing one of the strictest sanctions regimes in the world since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. These measures including the U.N. Security Council embargoes in 2007 and 2015, have had a major impact on Iran’s economy. However, alongside the economic hardship, sanctions have also spurred the growth of a domestic manufacturing sector, especially in defence and military industries, demonstrating the country’s capacity to adapt to hardship.
Hezbollah 2.0: The Future of the Party in Lebanon
Programmes
8 May 2025

Hezbollah 2.0: The Future of the Party in Lebanon

Hezbollah stands at a pivotal crossroads, navigating the turbulent aftermath of a devastating conflict with Israel and grappling with profound shifts in its domestic politics and the regional strategic map. The cessation of hostilities, marked by a U.S.-brokered ceasefire effective Nov. 27, 2024, brought an end to intense fighting that inflicted immense human suffering and infrastructural damage across the country. This fragile peace coincided with, and was significantly influenced by two seismic events: the sudden collapse of the al-Assad regime in Syria, severing Hezbollah’s critical land bridge to Iran, and the end of a paralyzing two-year presidential vacuum in Lebanon with the election of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) Commander General Joseph Aoun, who has promised to dismantle Hezbollah’s military structure and restrict access to weapons, these promises were likely possible to make because of Hezbollah's significantly weakened state.   The 2024 conflict dealt an unprecedented blow to Hezbollah, resulting in the decapitation of its leadership, including longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah and his designated successor; the death of thousands of its fighters; the depletion of its arsenal; and the destruction of vital military infrastructure. This military degradation precipitated a tangible decline in its political influence. Regionally isolated by the fall of its Syrian ally and unable to dictate terms domestically, facing the state signaling a potential shift in Lebanon's internal power dynamics.   Faced with military exhaustion, regional isolation, domestic political setbacks, and a core narrative of "resistance" severely challenged by the reality of defeat, Hezbollah confronts an existential crisis. The organization that emerged from the 2024 conflict is fundamentally different from the one that entered it. This analysis, probes the future trajectory of Hezbollah in this drastically altered landscape to understand how Hezbollah might adapt, survive, or transform in the face of these compounding pressures, and the constraints facing the Lebanese state and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) in asserting sovereignty, the divergent perspectives shaping the political discourse, and the plausible future pathways for Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Navigating the Thaw: Scenarios for the US-Iran Negotiations
Programmes
10 Apr 2025

Navigating the Thaw: Scenarios for the US-Iran Negotiations

The geopolitical landscape in the Middle East is set for a potentially major shift with US President Donald Trump’s announcement of the resumption of negotiations between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran, scheduled to begin on April 12, 2025. Following a period marked by escalating bilateral tensions and the effective dissolution of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), this resumption of dialogue has generated considerable anticipation both within Iran and across the wider region. The initial, albeit potentially transient, positive reactions observed in Tehran’s financial markets, as evidenced by movements in the stock market and gold prices, underscore the profound economic implications these discussions could hold for the Iranian populace. Furthermore, the potential for these negotiations to influence broader regional stability is a matter of significant concern and interest even for the nations within the Arabian Gulf. While the precise modalities of these diplomatic engagements – specifically whether they will entail direct bilateral talks, as suggested by the U.S. administration, or proceed indirectly through intermediary channels – remain subject to clarification, the very initiation of dialogue signifies a notable departure from the recent trajectory of U.S.-Iran relations. This analysis will therefore explore a range of plausible scenarios that may unfold as delegations from the United States and Iran convene on April 12, and consider the salient internal political dynamics within both nations, the prevailing external pressures exerted by regional and international actors, and the specific contextual factors that have contributed to this renewed, albeit cautious, engagement.
Silent Annexation: The Fate of Southern Syria
Programmes
13 Mar 2025

Silent Annexation: The Fate of Southern Syria

Caught in the crosscurrents of escalating regional and international rivalries, and witnessing an increasingly assertive Israeli presence, Southern Syria stands at a critical juncture. Ambiguity hangs heavy in the air, obscuring the long-term trajectory of a land grappling with fractured governance, demographic shifts, and the looming threat of further fragmentation. As international and regional actors jostle for influence and advantage, Israel's expansionist ambitions in the south proceed with a disconcerting sense of ease, guided by a methodical strategy and far-reaching objectives. This expansion, however, is not merely territorial; it is reshaping the very fabric of Southern Syria, impacting its social and demographic tapestry, and transforming it into a volatile arena for regional proxy conflicts. Meanwhile, the Syrian state, nominally in Damascus, grapples with deep-seated internal divisions and a diminished capacity to exert meaningful control, potentially paving the way for negative scenarios that threaten the nation's already fragile unity and sovereignty. This analysis aims to dissect these complex transformations, illuminating Israel’s calculated strategy, assessing the internal vulnerabilities of Syria, and anticipating the potential risks that lie ahead for this strategically vital, yet increasingly precarious, region.

Publications

The Blog

Trump’s Control Over His Party Falters

2 Jul 2025

Containment to Confrontation: US Intervention in Iran

23 Jun 2025

Will the Houthis Intervene?

23 Jun 2025

Strategic Assessment: The “Rising Lion” Strike and the Reshaping of Regional Security in the Middle East

14 Jun 2025

Visual Content Designer

28 May 2025

A Turning Point in Gaza: Allies’ Ultimatum May Shift the Calculus

25 May 2025

The 2025 European Blackout: Grid Fragility, Renewables, and Lessons for the Middle East

30 Apr 2025

Canada’s Elections in the Shadow of Trump

29 Apr 2025

Early Warning Researcher

27 Apr 2025

Political Researcher

27 Apr 2025

Lebanon: A Pattern of Escalation in the Middle East

23 Mar 2025

Emergency Arab Summit: The End of Gaza’s Suffering?

25 Feb 2025

Lebanon’s Golden Opportunity: A New Era with General Joseph Aoun

15 Jan 2025

HMPV: Political Weapon or Health Threat?

8 Jan 2025

What is Next for Syria?

10 Dec 2024

Dubai Future Forum, 2024

24 Nov 2024

A New US President… A New Middle East!

10 Nov 2024

The UAE’s Vision for Peace in the Region

24 Sep 2024

Restoring Lost Deterrence: Pager Explosions in Lebanon

18 Sep 2024

Al Karamah Crossing Incident: Individual Act or Growing Resistance?

11 Sep 2024

Political Consequences of Germany’s Local Election

3 Sep 2024

Will Germany’s Political Shift Alter Europe’s Stance on Ukraine?

3 Sep 2024

The Economic Ramifications of Israel’s Pre-emptive Strikes on Hezbollah

25 Aug 2024

What is Happening in Britain?

8 Aug 2024

The Assassination of Ismail Haniyeh: Implications for the Region

31 Jul 2024

The Attempted Assassination of Donald Trump

15 Jul 2024

BRICSPHONE: A Cultural Call to Unity to End Western Hegemony

8 Jul 2024

How Can New Think Tanks Navigate & Thrive in Changing Landscapes?

1 Jul 2024

BRICS Experts Forum 2024 “The Role of the BRICS in the Search for a New World Order”

26 Jun 2024

Security and Stability in the Mediterranean in Athens, Greece 2024

13 Jun 2024

What’s Next for Iran?

20 May 2024

Global Navigation Systems and Houthi Missiles

19 Feb 2024

Taiwan’s Elections: What Does it Bring for the World?

14 Jan 2024

Israel and the ICJ: Resuscitating Global Order

11 Jan 2024

Scrolling Through Their Childhood: Social Media’s Deep Impact on Coming Generations

20 Nov 2023

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