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Arab Airspace Blockade After Doha Attack
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17 Sep 2025

Arab Airspace Blockade After Doha Attack

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the potential economic, political, and security outcomes should the Arab and Islamic worlds enact a coordinated airspace blockade against Israel. The specified catalyst for this action is the Israeli airstrike on Hamas leadership in Doha, Qatar, on September 9, 2025, an event that has already precipitated a significant realignment of regional diplomatic postures.   The central thesis of this analysis is that a coordinated airspace blockade would represent a strategic shock to Israel, not merely a logistical inconvenience. It would function as a form of asymmetric economic warfare, inflicting severe, multi-sector damage on Israel's globally integrated economy by targeting its core vulnerabilities in aviation, high-value trade, and tourism. The direct economic impact is estimated to be a contraction of 4.8% to 5.7% of Israel's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a shock sufficient to trigger a deep recession.   Politically, the blockade would fundamentally re-order the regional geopolitical landscape, shattering the post-2020 status quo established by the Abraham Accords and rendering further normalization efforts untenable. It would accelerate a strategic pivot by Gulf Arab states away from a singular reliance on the United States as a security guarantor, fostering a new, region-driven security architecture. For the United States, such a development would present an acute diplomatic crisis, forcing a choice between its ironclad alliance with Israel and its vital strategic partnerships with Arab nations, thereby undermining a cornerstone of its Middle East policy.   From a security perspective, the blockade would act as a "gray zone" challenge, a highly coercive act that exists in the ambiguous space between peace and declared war. It would degrade the operational reach of the Israeli Air Force (IAF) and place the onus of military escalation squarely on Israel. A decision by Israel to forcibly challenge the blockade would create a high-probability pathway to a wider regional military conflict, potentially drawing in the Gulf states, Iran and its proxies, and the United States. The airspace blockade, therefore, represents a plausible and potent instrument of collective action that could irrevocably alter the strategic balance in the Middle East.
What If: The US Economy Collapses?
Programmes
28 May 2025

What If: The US Economy Collapses?

Global trade tensions, supply chain disruptions, and skyrocketing costs are some of the unprecedented effects caused by U.S. president Donald Trump’s second term aggressive tariff policies. Tariff policies' impact goes beyond being just hypothetical, with real-time predictions and forecasts that more severe effects could follow; the global GDP is expected to slowly grow by only 2.2% in 2025, while the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has warned of a possible global recession, given that growth slips below 2.5%. Not only the UNCTAD but also the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its outlook for the global economy to 2.8% in 2025 and made a significant revision for the U.S. economy lowering its 2025 growth projection to 1.8% in April from 2.7% in January. Adding to these concerns, the World Trade Organization has already highlighted a sharp deterioration in global trade prospects, with world merchandise trade now expected to decline by 0.2% in 2025, nearly three percentage points lower than previous forecasts.   The current instabilities go beyond the economic aspect; they also affect the U.S.’s international alliances and add additional burdens to households, many of whom are delaying major life decisions. A pressing question amid recession fears arises: What are the impacts on a global scale in the event of a U.S. economic collapse? Given the leading position the U.S. plays as the world’s largest economy and the leading issuer of primary reserve currency, such a downturn would trigger a financial disaster of unparalleled magnitude. Essentially, if the U.S.’s economy falls, the world’s economy falls with it. Imagine waking up a few years from now, pulling out your phone, and seeing the headline: "U.S. Economy in Freefall: Markets Collapsed Overnight." It begins as a distant rumble, as if a story is taking place somewhere else. But then you go to get your morning coffee, and the price has tripled. Your investment app reveals that your life savings have been devastated. Overseas, factories that rely on American consumers come to a standstill, leaving entire villages jobless. The USD, once the cornerstone of global banking, has collapsed, provoking wild currency wars as governments try to preserve their own. Suddenly, that far-off catastrophe isn't so far away; it's emptying your wallet, increasing your grocery cost, and endangering your basic existence. This isn't just a headline; it's a chilling, global economic winter, its icy grip felt in every home, on every continent, for generations. Are we truly prepared for such a cataclysm?
AI’s Crossroads: Decoding the Middle East’s AI Transformation
Programmes
30 Jul 2025

AI’s Crossroads: Decoding the Middle East’s AI Transformation

In a fast-paced world driven by technological advances, the global landscape is being reshaped by the rapid rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI), a technology that is playing a vital role in bringing in major economic shifts, unleashing a new era of GDP growth. One of the most active regions concerning AI integration is the Middle East, a region not only observing or keeping up, rather revolutionizing this integration as governments across the region harness the power of AI to reshape their policies, implement national strategies, attract smarter investments while powerfully reconstructing their futures. Such adaptation has already borne fruit, as different economies in the region became more agile and dynamic, systems evolved to operate more efficiently and smarter, resulting in providing better services to their respective populations.   Despite the rapid progress and fast growth of AI in the Middle East, the region still faces a set of challenges, including the lack of properly trained individuals and the constant need of innovative solutions and new ways to narrow this gap. On the other hand, the region lacks legislative framework to regulate the use of AI in a fair and ethical manner. While a growing need for sustainable infrastructure development underlines the fact that more work is still required, overcoming these obstacles and challenges will lead to unlock the region’s full potential, overcome competition and become a major player in the AI world globally.
Trump Peace Play: Three Futures for Russia-Ukraine War
Programmes
15 Sep 2025

Trump Peace Play: Three Futures for Russia-Ukraine War

Amid Trump’s meetings with Russian & Ukrainian counterparts to reach a prolonged ceasefire, questions arise about the possibility of a successful peace plan occurring between Moscow & Kyiv with a U.S. mediation. Yet, with Putin’s demands from one side and Trump’s ambiguous promises to Zelensky from the other side, will the Ukraine war come to an end?

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Balancing Talent and Identity: The GCC’s Labor Market Test

5 Oct 2025

Aid vs. Investment: Shifting Financial Flows to Palestine

1 Oct 2025

The UAE Strategic Steps Toward AI Leadership

30 Sep 2025

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