Containment to Confrontation: US Intervention in Iran
Programmes
23 Jun 2025

Containment to Confrontation: US Intervention in Iran

In the early hours of June 22, 2025, the Middle East entered a new phase of strategic confrontation following the United States' execution of a calibrated series of precision airstrikes against three of Iran’s most critical nuclear facilities: the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, the Natanz Enrichment Complex, and the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center. These strikes marked a significant inflection point in American policy toward Iran's nuclear program, signifying a deliberate departure from the long-preferred instruments of sanctions, diplomacy, and covert sabotage toward direct military action aimed at functionally dismantling Iran’s enrichment capacity.   The U.S. intervention did not occur in a vacuum but was preceded by a sweeping nine-day Israeli air campaign— “Operation Rising Lion”—which inflicted substantial damage on Iran’s conventional military and nuclear infrastructure. Yet U.S. strategic assessments concluded that Israeli capabilities alone would fall short of neutralizing the deeply buried Fordow facility, located nearly 90 meters beneath the mountains near Qom. Accordingly, Washington deployed B-2 Spirit bombers from Whiteman Air Force Base and launched submarine-based Tomahawk cruise missiles, employing—for the first time in combat—the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a 30,000-pound precision-guided “bunker buster” weapon. The strikes were designed not merely to degrade but to decapitate Iran’s uranium enrichment trajectory at every critical juncture.   While the U.S. administration proclaimed the operation a “complete and total success,” Iran’s leadership sought to downplay the extent of the damage, signalling both resilience and continued intent to pursue its nuclear ambitions. Tehran’s initial response refrained from large-scale direct retaliation, instead signalling a likely pivot toward asymmetric reprisal via regional proxies such as the Houthis, alongside diplomatic escalation and renewed threats to abandon the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). This calibrated restraint highlights the regime’s acute awareness of the potentially existential consequences of a direct confrontation with the United States.   Structurally, the strikes reflect a paradigmatic shift in U.S. non-proliferation doctrine: from risk management through deterrence and arms control to selective, high-precision coercion. The operation also underscores a changing regional deterrence architecture, in which American military intervention is no longer conditioned by alliance consensus or Gulf coordination, as several key Arab states were reportedly excluded from prior notification. This signals an American willingness to act unilaterally—or bilaterally with Israel—when core proliferation red lines are deemed to have been crossed.
Will the Houthis Intervene?
Programmes
23 Jun 2025

Will the Houthis Intervene?

On June 22, the United States attacked three main nuclear facilities in Iran (Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan), claiming that these strikes were successful and incapacitated the facilities. Following this attack, Iran fired a new wave of ballistic rockets at Israel while pledging to respond more fiercely to the U.S. attack. The degree of Iranian retaliation will be determined on whether the U.S. was successful in its attempt to completely destroy Iran's nuclear programme.   If Iran managed to move the enriched uranium into new safe places before the attack, or if these materials are being safely stored in the same facilities underground, beyond the reach of the U.S., the Iranian retaliation might be limited. However, if these materials have been destroyed, it is expected that Iran will retaliate strongly, as the U.S. and Israel have crossed the red lines that Iran has already set. In this case, Iran will tend to activate its proxy groups in the Middle East and get them involved.
Strategic Assessment: The “Rising Lion” Strike and the Reshaping of Regional Security in the Middle East
Programmes
14 Jun 2025

Strategic Assessment: The “Rising Lion” Strike and the Reshaping of Regional Security in the Middle East

On June 13, 2025, Israel launched an unprecedented and overt military operation against Iran, codenamed "Operation Rising Lion", marking a decisive shift in its strategic doctrine regarding Tehran’s nuclear trajectory. The operation, involving more than 200 combat aircraft—including F-15Is, F-16Is, and F-35s—targeted key nuclear infrastructure, foremost among them the Natanz enrichment facility, in addition to sensitive military and intelligence compounds in Tehran and suspected subterranean missile installations across multiple provinces.   The aerial strikes were not executed in isolation. They were accompanied by limited ground incursions carried out by Israeli special operations forces inside Iranian territory, alongside locally launched drones and sabotage missions activated by embedded networks, indicating a hybrid warfare architecture integrating airpower, cyber capability, and covert assets.   The operation resulted in the assassination of several senior Iranian military officials, including IRGC Commander Hossein Salami and Armed Forces Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri, as well as prominent nuclear scientists. Nevertheless, the intensely fortified Fordow enrichment facility, situated beneath a mountain near Qom, remained untouched, preserving Iran’s technical capacity to resume high-grade uranium enrichment if it chooses to do so.   Iran’s immediate response consisted of launching over 100 armed drones toward Israeli airspace, followed by announcements to construct a new, “impenetrable” enrichment site and to upgrade centrifuge infrastructure at Fordow. Globally, oil prices surged by over 10% within 24 hours, reflecting fears of regional destabilisation, particularly in light of Iran’s proximity to critical maritime chokepoints.   This paper thus aims to analyse the likely contours of Iran’s retaliatory strategy and to assess the broader geopolitical ramifications of the Israeli strike, particularly as they pertain to the security and strategic postures of the Arab Gulf in light of the retaliatory actions of Iran.
HMPV: Political Weapon or Health Threat?
Programmes
8 Jan 2025

HMPV: Political Weapon or Health Threat?

Current media reports on a mysterious respiratory disease spreading in China evoke memories of the early days of the COVID-19 Pandemic. However, this heightened attention reflects the post-pandemic world’s increased sensitivity to outbreaks. While vigilance is essential, it can sometimes lead to exaggerated perceptions of threat, particularly for diseases that are well understood by medical experts. However, looking at international media provides a broader perspective—could the West, with its strained relations with China, be using the virus to further isolate China geopolitically? In other words, is the virus being weaponised against China?
The Assassination of Ismail Haniyeh: Implications for the Region
Programmes
31 Jul 2024

The Assassination of Ismail Haniyeh: Implications for the Region

Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas’s political bureau, was assassinated in Tehran, Iran on July 31, 2024, following his attendance of the inauguration of Iran’s new president. Iran and Hamas have accused Israel of the assassination but Israel has given no response, as is common practice when Israel is involved in an assassination. The assassination of Haniyeh followed the earlier killing of Fuad Shukr a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut by Israel, as retaliation for an attack that left 12 dead in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.   Israel has stated previously that it would target Hamas officials wherever they are following October 7, and were successful in December when they assassinated Haniyeh’s deputy in Beirut, which brought ceasefire talks to a halt.   The targeting of Haniyeh who was leading negotiation efforts for a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas War is a serious escalation, and its occurrence in the heart of Iran directly following the inauguration of Iran’s president, not only has serious implications on the Israel-Hamas War, but for Iran and its proxies as well, who have been targeted recently by Israel.   So far, Iran has not provided information on how the assassination occurred, with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stating that the attack is under investigation, it is likely that a precision guided missile was used to target the IRGC veteran’s mansion that he was staying in. Following the assassination, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has pledged that Israel will face "harsh punishment" for its action in Tehran.   This is not the first time that Israel has been able to penetrate Iran’s borders to conduct assassinations, Israel has routinely been able to target Iranian officials such as its yearslong assassination campaign against Iranian nuclear experts and others involved in the Iran’s nuclear program. Most recent was the 2020 assassination of, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a leading Iranian military nuclear scientist, was killed by a remote-controlled machine pistol while driving outside Tehran.   Given Iran's direct and massive missile barrage against Israel in April, following the bombing of its embassy in Damascus, the world now faces significant questions: How will Tehran respond to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh on its soil? Moreover, does Iran have the capability or incentive to contain the actions of Hezbollah and the Houthis, especially after Israel’s killing of Hezbollah’s Fuad Shukr in Beirut and its bombing of the Houthi’s Hodeidah Port?
BRICS Experts Forum 2024 “The Role of the BRICS in the Search for a New World Order”
Programmes
26 Jun 2024

BRICS Experts Forum 2024 “The Role of the BRICS in the Search for a New World Order”

The 2024 BRICS Expert Forum was held during the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum from June 5 to 8, 2024. This forum is a prominent event that brings together a diverse group of experts, policymakers, and thought leaders from around the world. It served as a pivotal platform for in-depth discussions and strategic dialogues on the growing role of the BRICS countries in shaping the course of global governance and multilateral cooperation. The BRICS Expert Forum provided a unique opportunity to analyse the challenges and opportunities facing the BRICS bloc in the context of a rapidly shifting global landscape and served as a catalyst for new thinking and innovative solutions to the complex issues facing the world today by promoting the dynamic exchange of ideas between experts from different backgrounds.   Mostafa Ahmed, senior researcher at the Political Unit from the Al Habtoor Research Centre, participated as a speaker in a discussion session entitled “Promoting Growth Through Partnerships, Jointly Exploring Paths to Modernisation” which focused on the dimensions of economic and cultural cooperation of the BRICS group.   It is worth noting that the forum expanded its scope beyond traditional membership in BRICS, as it embraced representatives from new members such as the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Ethiopia. This widespread participation not only underscored the growing influence of these countries on the global stage but also highlighted the growing attractiveness of the BRICS model as an effective alternative to Western economic and political frameworks.
What’s Next for Iran?
Programmes
20 May 2024

What’s Next for Iran?

On May 19, while returning from the inauguration of the Giz Galasi Dam, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s helicopter crashed near Varzaqan, Iran. Initially described as a “hard landing” it became apparent by the end of the day that there were no survivors. The crash killed all on board, including President Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.