Ahmed El-Saeid

Researcher

Ahmed El-Saeid is an Economic Researcher in the Early Warning Programme, which focuses on monitoring and forecasting geopolitical threats and social and technological conflicts and transformations.

 

Prior to joining Al Habtoor Research Centre, he served as an Economist at the Central Bank of Egypt in the Macro-Prudential department, where he conducted research on Egypt’s industrial sectors and their exposure to economic shocks in addition to the analysis of the domestic credit environment. He contributed to the CBE’s annual Financial Stability Report. He also worked at Delta Research Center as a Political and Economic Researcher and interned at the World Bank in the Office of the Vice President.

 

Ahmed holds a B.A. in Economics with a minor in History from the American University in Cairo. His research interests include technological transformations' economic, political and social effects and monitoring, analysing and managing the global economy’s risks.

contact information

Latest By Ahmed El-Saeid

What’s Next for Iran?
Programmes
20 May 2024

What’s Next for Iran?

Al Habtoor Research Centre's Commentary articles allow researchers to provide quick, informed responses to ongoing topics, emphasizing personal perspectives and expert opinions without the weight of exhaustive citations. This ensures agility in addressing rapidly evolving subjects and enriches the discourse with authentic insights.   On May 19, while returning from the inauguration of the Giz Galasi Dam, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s helicopter crashed near Varzaqan, Iran. Initially described as a “hard landing” it became apparent by the end of the day that there were no survivors. The crash killed all on board, including President Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.
Interview with ChatGPT: Will These Applications Bring the End of Human Knowledge?
Programmes
22 May 2023

Interview with ChatGPT: Will These Applications Bring the End of Human Knowledge?

OpenAI released its AI chatbot in November 2022. ChatGPT is able to generate text, answer questions, summarise information, and write code, the eerily human chatbot has taken the world by storm, setting the record for fastest growing application in history. It took Instagram 2.5 years to reach 100 million monthly active users and TikTok nine months. ChatGPT attracted 100 million monthly active users in less than three months.   ChatGPT becoming an internet sensation has created fascinating use cases from writing high school essays to passing business and medical schools’ exams. Its usage has also brought about a slew of ethical concerns related to data privacy, content ownership, and its potential to disrupt nearly every job market. I sat down with ChatGPT to see what it had to say for itself.
Hey Siri, Build a House: 3D Printing in Construction
Programmes
26 Apr 2023

Hey Siri, Build a House: 3D Printing in Construction

Humanity’s ability to create permanent structures has been an essential part of civilization for thousands of years and was crucial for our transition from hunter-gatherers to settled peoples. As groups of people settled down in a single place, we have had to advance construction techniques and technologies to further the development of our societies, our ability to advance construction techniques has led to the creation of structures that inspire humanity and continue to push the boundaries of what we think is possible.   Recently however, the construction industry has been slow in adopting new innovations that have helped revolutionize other industries, at a time where it is expected that 300 million new homes are needed by 2030 and construction related activities contributed to 37% of global CO2 emissions in 2021, the need to adopt new technologies that will increase efficiency and reduce emissions is of paramount importance and 3D printing has been touted as the solution to the construction industry’s woes.
Rare Earth Elements: Uses and Implications of New Discoveries
Programmes
15 Feb 2023

Rare Earth Elements: Uses and Implications of New Discoveries

Rare earth elements (REEs) are a group of 17 elements that are crucial for the production of a wide range of high-tech products. Ironically, REEs are not “rare” and are found abundantly throughout the world, however, when found they are in such low concentrations that extraction is not feasible. Furthermore, when found in higher concentrations they must be separated from other elements, a process that is both environmentally and financially costly.   REEs are vital for several industries and are used in electronics, military technology, and most importantly, renewable energy. Although substitutes exist for REEs with producers attempting to replace them, REEs continue to be more effective, therefore, given their importance in the production of renewable technologies such as wind turbines and electric vehicles, demand is expected to increase, with the European Union (EU) alone expecting REEs needs to increase fivefold as it and the rest of the world transitions to net-zero.   Currently, China dominates the global REEs market, accounting for over 35% of the world’s REEs reserves and 70% of production. China's domination of the REEs market has raised concerns over supply chain security, dependence on China, and China’s use of REEs as a political bargaining piece; such as when it cut exports to Japan following the arrest of a Chinese sailor by Japan. Recently, discoveries of REE deposits in Norway and Sweden have made headlines. The discoveries could have the potential to disrupt the market and have far-reaching implications.  
The Future of Youth in the Post-Oil Era: The Case of the United Arab Emirates and Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Programmes
12 Jan 2023

The Future of Youth in the Post-Oil Era: The Case of the United Arab Emirates and Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

One of the most critical issues currently facing the Middle East is the changing composition of its demographic structure. A massive cohort of young people — known as a youth bulge — is challenging policymakers, with youth policies affecting security, education, the labour market, and welfare programs, among other areas. Given the relative stability and wealth of the Gulf states, this is an issue that is not often associated with the region. However, handling a growing young population is just as challenging in the Gulf.   The Gulf is one of the wealthiest regions worldwide; in terms of GDP per capita, it is distinctive due to its unique hydrocarbon reserves compared to a relatively small national population. Gulf states rely on oil revenue — to varying degrees — to attract private investors and provide extensive public services and subsidies to nationals. With not enough diversification in their economies, government spending in the Gulf states will continue to be a barrier to economic diversification. To sustain the high standard of living attained by Emirati and Saudi societies to the youth and the coming generations, the two countries must set strategies and plans to integrate youth while continuing to diversify their economies away from oil. This study explores the impact of the post-oil reforms and strategy on the youth, including education, employment, social contract, and identity.   The study applies Late Rentier State Theory to analyse the relationship between youth, the Emirati and Saudi states, the post-oil reforms, and their future trajectories. The analysis is guided by some of the characteristics identified by Late RST which focus on the impact of globalization, modernization policies, diversification, the state’s encouragement of entrepreneurship, and the sustainability of their strategies with regards to the extent to which they accommodate youth’s needs and account for changing societal structures and expectations.   While the study does not refute the youth bulge hypothesis, which contends that states where young adults constitute a large proportion of the population are expected to face an elevated risk of political violence and interstate conflict, widely used in the literature; it adds to it by proposing that while those risks exist, they can be alleviated under certain circumstances. Those circumstances include policies and strategies to be taken by governments that are relevant to youth needs and the surrounding environment. Namely, taking into consideration both agency and structure.   The study finds that, for the United Arab Emirates, the results of education and Emiratisation policies are likely to shape the shifting social contract between young Emiratis and the government, and could lead to a range of outcomes, from the promising- a population of empowered, educated, and skilled Emirati youth- to the stagnant- disappointed and apathetic youth persistent in their preference of the public sector- to the more worrisome- yet unlikely- active opposition by dissatisfied youth.   With regards to the Kingdom Saudi Arabia, the study finds that while the government is investing massively in educational and employment reforms, young Saudis need to adopt entrepreneurial values and work ethic to ensure the success of “Neo-Saudism". This in turn requires a certain level of responsiveness from the government and possibly more opportunities for youth to participate in decision making in the near future. The speed of change and the extent to which youth’s values and perspectives may clash with those of older generations is yet to be determined. The real challenge for Saudi decision makers and strategists will be in maintaining balance and stable relations between different societal groups.
Between Conspiracy and Reality: United States Gains from the Russo-Ukraine War
Programmes
10 Oct 2022

Between Conspiracy and Reality: United States Gains from the Russo-Ukraine War

The United States and Russia have a long and complicated history. The USSR and the United States of America were allies during the Second World War and quickly turned rivals during the Cold War (1947 – 1991). It was throughout this period that the ideological differences between the two superpowers reached its height, with the formation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) by the United States, and the USSR responding by creating the Warsaw Pact effectively splitting the world between East and West. Despite there being no direct conflict between the United States and USSR, each state would actively participate in proxy wars; where agents supplied by them would engage in hostilities such as in the Chinese Civil War (1944 – 1949), the Korean War (1950 – 1953), the Vietnam War (1955 – 1975), and the Soviet-Afghan War (1979 – 1989).   Furthermore, the United States and USSR would attempt to place weapons within each other’s spheres of influence with the United States doing so in Italy and Turkey in 1961 and the USSR responding by supplying Cuba which ultimately led to the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, and nearly brought both superpowers to nuclear war. Following the fall of the USSR, the United States was the only remaining superpower and relations between the United States and the newly formed Russian Federation began to improve, however by 1999 that came to an end as NATO further expanded in Eastern Europe with Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic joining, in 2004 Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania joined as well, all had been former members of the USSR and were viewed by Russia as part of its sphere of influence.   Since then, United States-Russia relations have been consistently deteriorating with recent significant events being the invasion and annexation of Crimea in 2014 and accusations by the United States that Russia manipulated the 2016 Presidential Election. It is within this context of United States led encroachment into territory that Russia believes culturally and historically should be its own that the Russo-Ukrainian War resumed flowing the invasion of Crimea, below is where we will analyse what the United States has to gain and the legacy the Cold War casts on the Russia-United States relationship.