European Election

Europe in 2026 stands at an inflection point. The convergence of six structural crises — economic divergence, technological dependence, strategic vulnerability, institutional paralysis, demographic decline, and energy insecurity — means that the trajectory of the continent over the next fifteen years is genuinely uncertain. There is no default path. The future will be made by a series of choices, shocks, and compounding interactions that no single actor fully controls.   Yet uncertainty should not be understood as decline. Rather, it reflects the fact that Europe is entering a period in which multiple futures remain possible. The decisions taken today by governments, institutions, businesses, and societies will determine whether Europe emerges stronger, more fragmented, more autonomous, or increasingly dependent on external powers. In many ways, Europe is being asked to redefine itself at a time when the rules that shaped the post-Cold War era are rapidly being rewritten. This study adopts a scenario-led approach to explore how Europe may evolve by 2040. Instead of attempting to decide on a single future, it examines several plausible pathways that could emerge from the interaction of political, economic, technological, demographic, and geopolitical forces. The scenarios presented in the first chapter are not forecasts; they are tools designed to challenge assumptions, identify risks, and illuminate opportunities.   Building upon these scenarios, the subsequent chapters examine the key drivers that are expected to shape Europe's future, including economic competitiveness, technological sovereignty, energy security, demographic transformations, geopolitical shifts, defence and strategic autonomy, and the evolution of Europe's role in an increasingly multipolar international system. Together, these chapters seek to answer a broader question: not simply what Europe's future will look like, but what kind of Europe will emerge from the choices being made today.   Ultimately, this study is built around a simple premise: Europe's future is not predetermined. It will be negotiated, contested, and continuously reshaped by events both within and beyond its borders. The continent's greatest challenge over the coming years may therefore be learning how to navigate uncertainty itself.

In a surprising move, and after the far-right National Rally (RN) party dominated in the European elections in France, French President Emmanuel Macron announced the dissolving of parliament and called for snap elections. The move is seen as very risky, with many believing that it will further embolden the far-right whose chances of winning a parliamentary absolute majority exceeds that of Macron’s coalition. Nevertheless, Macron’s decision is not without some strategic planning. Nonetheless, whether the French president succeeds in his plan or not, watching French politics for the upcoming three years will be definitely be interesting.