Vali Nasr and The Shia Revival: A Permanent Ascent, or a Passing Moment?

Political Forecasting almost always remains open to doubt, at least until events place it under the unforgiving test of reality. In the series Were They Right?, we take a retrospective path: returning to the analytical record of the past to examine what experts anticipated, then confronting those forecasts with the hard facts of the present in order to identify what truly endured. And today, we place Vali Nasr under a precise analytical lens, weighing the framework of The Shia Revival against the empirical record of Iran’s strategic contraction in the wars of 2024–2026.