Critical Minerals

As November 2026 approaches, the future of the export control measures imposed by China on rare earth elements and related materials, currently under suspension, remains surrounded by uncertainty. On September 28, 2026, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced the extension of the broader economic and trade agreement between China and the United States “Kuala Lumpur Agreement” until January 10, 2027. However, this announcement didn’t explicitly amend the expiration date specified in the “Announcement No. 70 of 2025,” which mandates the suspension of six prior decisions until November 10, 2026. So, unless a subsequent official decision is issued to extend this suspension, the potential resumption of these measures remains a regulatory risk.

During the age of empires, the colonisation of the Global South by imperial powers in Europe was done not only to expand their territories beyond their borders but also to exploit the colonised for their natural resources. These resources usually came in the form of precious metals and minerals, agricultural products, and human labour; which the empires deemed necessary to build influence, wealth, and strength. By the end of World War 2, these empires began to disintegrate, as colonies began to seek independence which continued beyond 1945. This shift led to the creation of a new world order centred less on empire and more on democratic rule. Although the age of empire ended, a new era of neo-colonialism was born, where former colonisers aimed to continue to obtain resources from former colonies.   Instead of colonising, former empires, great powers, and multinational corporations indirectly controlled newly independent states through economic and trade agreements, financial reliance, and foreign aid. One area in which old colonial structures and legacies are still prevalent is the Global North’s acquisition of critical minerals and rare earths from the Global South to fuel the transition from fossil fuels as an energy source to renewable energy. This exploitation is defined as green colonialism, where the Global North exports the environmental and social costs of the green transition onto states and indigenous people in the Global South. The term green colonisation is justified, as it is a combination of external control, constrained policy autonomy, unequal bargaining and uncompensated costs the Global North forces onto the Global South. This can be explained by the Global North extending the economic and social costs of green transitions to mineral-rich states while reducing the economic value of these states, leading to a colonial economic structure, which can be challenged by a resource rebellion in the form of resource nationalism, industrial policy, and contractual renegotiation if colonial conditions persist.