Eurasia

Ukraine’s shift from a battlefield conflict to a multidimensional strategy of systematically exhausting Russian war efforts appears to be causing divisions and tensions among the elites in Moscow. This has triggered expectations of elite defections from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime and even the possibility of his removal. According to this view, the prolonged war is likely to undermine Russia’s internal stability and elite confidence, which eventually would translate to broader political restructuring and potentially a complete regime change.   However, the complex structure of the Russian regime suggests a different scenario regarding how elite dissatisfaction could influence the course of events and the relationship between elite fragmentation and regime stability. Hence, the strategic question is no longer whether Russia can survive battlefield losses but whether the Kremlin can indefinitely withstand the cumulative pressures of growing elite frustration.

The prolonged Russia-Ukraine War has been met with futile efforts to end it by several peace plans throughout nearly four years of war. Currently, U.S. President Donald Trump appears determined to end the war by pushing a peace plan in the last few months of 2025 and negotiating with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.   Many scenarios unfold for the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine War. Amid the ongoing peace negotiations, driven mainly by the U.S. and Russia’s push for Trump’s 28‑point plan and Ukraine’s counterproposal through the amended 19‑point plan, a settlement favouring Russia is increasingly possible, raising the question: if such a plan is adopted, how will the Eurasian scene change?

On October 1, U.S. reports stated that President Donald Trump gave the green light to provide Ukraine with intelligence information to strike deep into Russia’s energy infrastructure sites, while studying providing Kyiv with long-range weapons that can be used in such strikes. The reports also indicated that Washington is encouraging the NATO allies to take similar actions.   The U.S. has already been providing intelligence to Ukraine since the beginning of the war; however, Trump's signalling to provide more sensitive information could hold different consequences on the outcomes of the war. Since his second-term inauguration, Trump has vowed to end the Russia-Ukraine war, so does this decision come in parallel to the American President's ambition to broker a peace deal between Moscow and Kyiv, and how this might implicate the Russian and Ukrainian sides.

Amid Trump’s meetings with Russian & Ukrainian counterparts to reach a prolonged ceasefire, questions arise about the possibility of a successful peace plan occurring between Moscow & Kyiv with a U.S. mediation. Yet, with Putin’s demands from one side and Trump’s ambiguous promises to Zelensky from the other side, will the Ukraine war come to an end?