Pulse

The international system is undergoing one of its most significant periods of transformation since the end of the Cold War. Intensifying geopolitical competition, prolonged armed conflicts, growing tensions between major powers, and mounting criticism of international institutions have all raised fundamental questions about the future of global governance. As confidence in the post-1945 international order declines, debates over multipolarity, the effectiveness of multilateral cooperation, and the legitimacy of international organizations have become increasingly central to global political discourse. /* Make the container take 100% width ONLY when it contains .outer-post-summary */ .container:has(.outer-post-summary) { width: 100%; max-width: 100%; padding:0px; } /* Hide the col-lg-2 elements inside outer-post-summary */ .outer-post-summary .col-lg-2 { display: none; } /* Make the col-lg-8 element take 100% width */ .outer-post-summary .col-lg-8 { width: 100%; flex: 0 0 100%; max-width: 100%; } .post-summary-section { padding: 0px 0 25px; padding: 0px 0 0px; } .comment-section { display: none; } #related_publications_slider_sec { display: none; } .like_dislike { display:none; } .hero-banner.post-details-banner.program-banner { display: none; } :root{ --bg-a:#8C241C; --bg-b:#6B1414; --bg-c:#3A0909; --card:rgba(0,0,0,0.24); --card-2:rgba(0,0,0,0.16); 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} 50%{ opacity:.22; } } @keyframes bg-flow{ to{ stroke-dashoffset:-320; } } main, footer, .hero, .intro{ position:relative; z-index:1; } @media (prefers-reduced-motion: reduce){ .scroll-cue .line{ animation:none !important; } .bg-anim .ring-group, .bg-anim .ring-group.reverse, .bg-anim .node, .bg-anim .link{ animation:none !important; } } Pulse Survey Series The New World Order The old system is fracturing — and no clear successor is in sight. Findings from Al Habtoor Research Centre. Read the findings The international system is undergoing one of its most significant periods of transformation since the end of the Cold War. Intensifying geopolitical competition, prolonged armed conflicts, growing tension between major powers, and mounting criticism of international institutions have all raised fundamental questions about the future of global governance. As confidence in the post-1945 order declines, debates over multipolarity, the effectiveness of multilateral cooperation, and the legitimacy of international organizations have moved to the center of global political discourse. This Pulse survey examines how the public reads that shift — their trust in institutions, their view of recent great-power behaviour, and their expectations for who, if anyone, leads next. 87%say Trump's positions have hurt international bodies 75%see multilateral cooperation as weaker than a decade ago 43%expect a multipolar world of major powers Confidence in institutions has collapsed 56.5%say bodies like the UN, WHO and World Bank are no longer as reliable as they once were Only 4.3% of respondents still describe these institutions as trustworthy and dependable. A further 39.1% express just moderate confidence — a qualified trust that, combined with outright distrust, means 96% of respondents now hold some degree of reservation about the institutions built to anchor the post-war order. International institutions derive their effectiveness from broad public confidence in their impartiality. When that confidence is this thin, it points to a legitimacy challenge rather than a passing mood — and it sets the baseline against which future Pulse surveys will track whether the erosion is cyclical or structural. How much confidence do you currently have in international institutions? The "Trump effect" reads as corrosive, not neutral 87%view Donald Trump's recent positions as a negative influence on international institutions Positive, neutral, and unsure responses are essentially tied at 4.3% each — a rare degree of consensus in an otherwise divided survey. Respondents appear to read the "Trump effect" as more than disagreement with one leader: when the world's most influential power openly questions or selectively engages with international institutions, it creates permission for other states to do the same. Over time, that dynamic risks weakening respect for international law, reducing compliance with multilateral rules, and accelerating the fragmentation of the global governance system this survey documents throughout. How do you view recent Trump positions on international institutions? No successor to the current order is in sight 43.5%believe no clear leader will shape global governance in the years ahead Emerging powers are the next most likely candidate at 29%, while the United States (13%) and regional coalitions (14.5%) trail closely behind — essentially split. Rather than a single successor to the current order, respondents anticipate a diffusion of influence. The absence of a dominant choice suggests people don't expect a straightforward handover from one hegemon to the next, but a more fluid, contested environment where power is dispersed among multiple actors without a universally accepted leader. Who is most likely to shape global governance in the future? A decade-long slide in multilateral cooperation 75.4%say multilateral cooperation is weaker today than a decade ago Only 8.7% believe it has strengthened; 15.9% see it as roughly unchanged. This perception reinforces the broader narrative running through the survey: a system seen as increasingly fragmented and less able to coordinate collective action — on security, public health, climate, or economic governance. If this view persists, it may further erode public expectations that international institutions can manage the next global crisis. Cooperation vs. a decade ago Multipolarity is the expected — not the feared — outcome 43.5%expect power distributed among several major states; another 36.2% expect regional coalitions to lead instead Together, multipolar and coalition-led futures account for close to four-fifths of all responses. Just 17.4% remain unsure, while a return to unipolarity (2.9%) draws only marginal support. The post–Cold War unipolar moment, in the public's view, is ending — not in favour of a new single power, but of a system with multiple centres of influence and greater reliance on flexible coalitions. Which future model of global order is most realistic? "Respondents don't simply believe the existing order is weakening — they expect the emerging one to be more fragmented, more competitive, and less predictable." Managing diffusion, not replacing a hegemon Taken together, the five findings point to one conclusion: the challenge for global governance in the coming years is less about which power replaces the last one, and more about managing a world where power is increasingly diffused across multiple, uncoordinated actors — with public trust in the referee institutions already running low. Pulse Survey Series Al Habtoor Research Centre Figures reflect the share of respondents selecting each response option and may not sum to 100% due to rounding. function initCharts(){ Chart.defaults.font.family = "'Barlow', sans-serif"; Chart.defaults.color = '#D9A793'; const palette = { rank1:'#7B1315', rank2:'#994238', rank3:'#D07465', rank4:'#F09988' }; function tooltipBase(){ return { backgroundColor:'#3A0909', borderColor:'rgba(242,198,176,0.4)', borderWidth:1, titleFont:{family:"'Barlow', sans-serif", size:11, weight:700}, bodyFont:{family:"'Barlow', sans-serif", size:13}, padding:10, displayColors:true }; } function donutTooltip(){ return Object.assign(tooltipBase(), { callbacks:{ label:(ctx)=> ` ${ctx.label}: ${ctx.parsed}%` } }); } function barTooltip(){ return Object.assign(tooltipBase(), { callbacks:{ label:(ctx)=> ` ${ctx.label}: ${ctx.parsed.x}%` } }); } function buildLegend(canvasId, labels, data, colors){ const panel = document.getElementById(canvasId).closest('.chart-panel'); const legend = document.createElement('div'); legend.className = 'legend-custom'; labels.forEach((label,i)=>{ const item = document.createElement('div'); item.className = 'item'; item.innerHTML = `${label} ${data[i]}%`; legend.appendChild(item); }); panel.appendChild(legend); } // Chart 1 — Confidence in institutions (()=>{ const labels=['No confidence','Moderate confidence','Confident & trustworthy']; const data=[56.5,39.1,4.3]; const colors=[palette.rank1, palette.rank2, palette.rank3]; new Chart(document.getElementById('chart1'), { type:'doughnut', data:{ labels, datasets:[{ data, backgroundColor:colors, borderColor:'#3A0909', borderWidth:3, hoverOffset:10 }] }, options:{ cutout:'68%', plugins:{ legend:{display:false}, tooltip:donutTooltip() } } }); buildLegend('chart1', labels, data, colors); })(); // Chart 2 — Trump effect (()=>{ const labels=['Negative impact','Positive impact','Neutral impact','Not sure']; const data=[87,4.3,4.3,4.3]; const colors=[palette.rank1, palette.rank2, palette.rank3, palette.rank4]; new Chart(document.getElementById('chart2'), { type:'doughnut', data:{ labels, datasets:[{ data, backgroundColor:colors, borderColor:'#3A0909', borderWidth:3, hoverOffset:10 }] }, options:{ cutout:'68%', plugins:{ legend:{display:false}, tooltip:donutTooltip() } } }); buildLegend('chart2', labels, data, colors); })(); // Chart 3 — Who shapes global governance (horizontal bar) (()=>{ const labels=['No clear leader','Emerging powers','Regional coalitions','The United States']; const data=[43.5,29,14.5,13]; const colors=[palette.rank1, palette.rank2, palette.rank3, palette.rank4]; new Chart(document.getElementById('chart3'), { type:'bar', data:{ labels, datasets:[{ data, backgroundColor:colors, borderRadius:4, barThickness:26 }] }, options:{ indexAxis:'y', maintainAspectRatio:false, plugins:{ legend:{display:false}, tooltip:barTooltip() }, scales:{ x:{ max:50, grid:{color:'rgba(242,198,176,0.12)'}, ticks:{callback:(v)=>v+'%'} }, y:{ grid:{display:false} } } } }); })(); // Chart 4 — Cooperation trend (()=>{ const labels=['Weaker','About the same','Stronger']; const data=[75.4,15.9,8.7]; const colors=[palette.rank1, palette.rank2, palette.rank3]; new Chart(document.getElementById('chart4'), { type:'doughnut', data:{ labels, datasets:[{ data, backgroundColor:colors, borderColor:'#2A0808', borderWidth:3, hoverOffset:10 }] }, options:{ cutout:'68%', plugins:{ legend:{display:false}, tooltip:donutTooltip() } } }); buildLegend('chart4', labels, data, colors); })(); // Chart 5 — Future model of order (()=>{ const labels=['Multipolar world','Regional coalitions','Not sure','Return to unipolarity']; const data=[43.5,36.2,17.4,2.9]; const colors=[palette.rank1, palette.rank2, palette.rank3, palette.rank4]; new Chart(document.getElementById('chart5'), { type:'bar', data:{ labels, datasets:[{ data, backgroundColor:colors, borderRadius:4, barThickness:22 }] }, options:{ indexAxis:'y', maintainAspectRatio:false, plugins:{ legend:{display:false}, tooltip:barTooltip() }, scales:{ x:{ max:50, grid:{color:'rgba(242,198,176,0.12)'}, ticks:{callback:(v)=>v+'%'} }, y:{ grid:{display:false} } } } }); })(); } if (typeof Chart !== 'undefined') { initCharts(); } else { window.addEventListener('chartjs-ready', initCharts); }

This Pulse survey, conducted in March 2026, explores perceptions of the ongoing war and its potential trajectories, focusing on expectations around its duration, outcomes, and broader regional and global implications. The findings reveal a high degree of uncertainty, with no clear consensus on how or when the conflict will end, reflecting the complexity and fluidity of the situation.

This Pulse survey, conducted in November 2025, explores public attitudes toward AI in Arab societies, with a particular focus on reliance on foreign AI models and their impact on Arab values and identity. The findings highlight growing concerns about how AI systems may influence cultural norms, shape collective identity, and redefine societal priorities. By examining perceptions of the need for Arab-developed AI and views on who should lead its development, the survey offers insight into how technological dependence is increasingly understood as a strategic, cultural, and identity-related issue across the Arab world.

This Pulse survey, conducted in August 2025, examines public perceptions of the Arabic language and its role in shaping regional identity, security, and cohesion. The findings shed light on how populations view the weakening of Arabic as a potential threat, not only to cultural and social unity, but also to economic stability and national security. By exploring both immediate and long-term concerns, the survey provides valuable insights into how language is perceived as a pillar of resilience in the Arab world.

This Pulse survey, conducted in June 2025, explores perceptions of nuclear threats in the region, including the likelihood of nuclear events, levels of preparedness, and the need for collective emergency response. The findings offer insights into how geopolitical uncertainty is shaping public concerns about nuclear risks.     When asked about the likelihood of a nuclear event occurring in the Middle East within the next 10 years, the majority of respondents placed the probability between high (41%) and moderate (41%). Only a small minority believed such an event is unlikely (16%) or ruled it out entirely (3.1%). Indicating that a potential nuclear event is no longer seen as a distant possibility, but rather as a plausible risk shaped by current geopolitical dynamics and regional instability.     In response to the survey question on the most likely cause of a nuclear fallout event, participants felt that a nuclear war was the most likely cause (46%) over a nuclear reactor malfunction (38%). While historical incidents suggest that reactor malfunctions have been more frequent, respondents seem more preoccupied with the threat of nuclear war, likely influenced by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the wake of recent conflicts, including the now-concluded Iran-Israel War. Cyberattacks, although technically plausible, were considered less likely (13%), again perhaps due to comparison with the more immediate risks of war or malfunction. Meanwhile, terrorist attacks were seen as the least likely (4.2%) cause, reinforcing the perception that threats from rival states pose a greater nuclear risk than those from non-state actors.     When asked whether the Middle East should establish a joint nuclear emergency system, the majority of respondents (91%) supported regional cooperation, reflecting concerns over rising tensions and the limited capacity of some states to respond independently. A small minority (9%), however, opposed a fully inclusive system and favoured cooperation among select countries. Suggesting that those respondents perceive certain states as more vulnerable, or more responsible, than others, implying a belief in differentiated eligibility for participation. Ultimately, this response pattern may also highlight underlying perceptions of disparity among regional states and a reluctance to include perceived "free riders" in collective security efforts.     In response to whether the Middle East is prepared for a nuclear malfunction or cyberattack, the majority of participants (76%) expressed a clear sense of unpreparedness. With remaining respondents believing that the Middle East is somewhat (12%) or fully (12%) prepared. The strong emphasis on lack of preparedness reflects a prevailing sense of concern or fear among respondents. This sentiment is further reinforced by earlier responses, particularly the widespread support for establishing a joint nuclear emergency system, indicating that many view regional cooperation as essential to compensate for individual state limitations in crisis response.     When asked about the region’s preparedness for a potential nuclear war, an even larger share of respondents (87%) indicated that the Middle East is not equipped to handle such a scenario. Compared to the previous question on nuclear malfunctions and cyberattacks, the heightened perception of unpreparedness here reveals which category of threats weighs more heavily on respondents’ minds. This contrast suggests that nuclear war, in particular, is seen as a more pressing and dominant concern, likely due to its catastrophic scale and links to ongoing geopolitical instability in the region.   PULSE is a data-driven series that visualizes public sentiment on trending regional and global issues, curated and edited by the Al Habtoor Research Centre Early Warning Programme’s Senior Researchers Habiba Diaaeldin and Ahmed El Saeid.   The findings presented are based on data collected through social media polls and online forms distributed via email. While efforts are made to ensure a broad and diverse sample, the results reflect the views and opinions of respondents and should not be interpreted as representative of the entire population or Al Habtoor Research Centre.