US-China Summit: Not Peace, Rivalry Management

In the early hours of May 13, US President Donald Trump travelled to China to engage in high stakes talks with his Chinese counterpart Chinese President Xi Jinping. These talks are taking place in the context of heightened global instability stemming from conflicts such as the US-Israel-Iran War and the economics shocks stemming from this conflict. Within this context, both governments are set to engage in conversations aimed at stabilizing the US-China relationship and partaking in strategic dialogue regarding geopolitical and economic uncertainty. This summit can potentially shape the future of the US-China relationship as the outcome of these talks can shape the economic and security relationship between the two nations and their partners in the long run. Therefore, an exploration into this summit is needed and will focus on explaining the reason the summit is happening now, the mindset of the parties entering the summit, the topics on the agenda, and the potential outcomes of the summit.

First, it is important to understand reason for the summit is taking place, especially within the context of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. It should be noted that this summit was supposed to take place in between March 31 and April 2, however, it was delayed due to the US-Israel-Iran War. Moreover, the US and China have met before in November 2025, where the trade truce was announced and stabilized trade tensions between them.

As to why this summit is taking place now, it is precisely due to the geopolitical and economic instability taking place in the world today, as both the US and China fear that unnecessary escalation and miscalculation can result in their current rivalry spiraling out of control. This fear of escalation is clearly represented beyond the realm of trade, as the mishandling of security issues relating to Taiwan and Iran can result in a potential conflict between the two nations. Moreover, the current tension between the two countries in a time of the global uncertainty is further represented when President Xi himself told President Trump not to fall into the Thucydides Trap (…idea that when a rising power threatens to displace an established one, the result is often war.), in relation to US military support of Taiwan.

This exposes the fragility of the US-China truce, as there is no concrete dialogue to pursue the economic and ideological issues plaguging the US-China dealings, as any simple mistep in this current environment could result in rapid escalation and possible conflict between the two countries. So, the time for talks is now, as there needs to be a means to control and manage the US-China rivalry at a time where tensions are most high and could erupt into conflict at a moments notice. Therefore, within the context of tension, it is likely the US and China will attempt to discuss open lines of communication and diplomatic dialogue as a means to manage their rivalry and provide diplomatic solutions in an uncertain world.

The US and China may publicily entering these talks projecting the image of strength, however, the assumption is that one has more to gain from these talks, while the other is operating under a silent policy of damage control. Enter the US, where President Trump attempts to project the image of a dealmaker, however, the mindset of his trip to China does not reflect the theatrics. President Trump is entering this summit having instigated in a regional conflict in the MENA region, which resulted in global economic instability, so the mindset will be focused on pragmatic talks with China, but from a position of pressured to achieve a meaningful economic or diplomatic win. This is clear as the US is currently facing an election year, and with President Trump polling poorly, especially relating to the economy, he will like to achieve some sort of economic win (an increase of exports of American goods to China), to show his maximum pressure economic policy works.

 To add the the US’ urgencey of achieving and economic and diplomatic win, the US is also entering these talks as an overstretched power. This is clear as the US is involved in numerous geopolitical theaters (Russo-Ukraine War, Indo-Pacific tensions, and conflict in the MENA region), which can leave the US shattered the image of US credibility, which to an extent reduces its negotiation power. Therefore, the US mindset entering this summit is one under pressure to achieve a substative gain in trade (especially relating to AI, American goods, and energy) or diplomacy to show President Trump’s methods are beneficial and most importantly work.

While President Trump is entering this summit from a position of pressure, President Xi is entering from a position of confidence and patience focused on stabilizing and managing the US-China rivalry. China will use this summit as an opportunity to portray itself as a confident and stablizing hand in a world of uncertainty and stability, which is juxtaposed with the US’ erratic approach of maximum pressure. China can use the Trump administration’s trip to the summit to validate China’s rising global stature and ability to project strength in the face of maximum pressure. China’s perceived success in deflecting of coercive US trade policy can give China the upperhand and confidence to pressure the US into a favorable trade agreement. This confidence is clearly present in China’s leveraging of its rare earths and critical minerals industry to coerce the US to reduce its tariffs. Therefore, it is clear that China has the coercive tools necessary to force President Trump into compromising and feeds the image of confidence.

Overall, the mindset of both countries entering these talks is to focus on stabilizing the relationship as opposed to uncontrolled rivalry. This is true as the US is under pressure to show that it can get trade or diplomatic win, while China is focused on projecting the image of a calming hand during times of uncertainty. Both sides want to have productive talks focused on controlling the competition and managing the rivalry, as further instability does will not favor either side economically.

There are three main points of contention that will be discussed in depth during this summit. These points of contention include: the status of Taiwan, artificial intelligence and emerging technologies, and the Iran War as well as the Strait of Hormuz.

A major aspect of the US-China talks is the concept of controlling risks, which extends beyond the realm of global economy. Neither the US nor China want an unnecessary escalation, especially relating to issues focused on the Indo-Pacific region. One area where both countries are concerned regarding potential escalation is the issue of Taiwan, which is set to be discussed during this summit. China believes Taiwan is a Chinese territory, while the US provides military support to Taiwan, thus acting as a security provider. The extent of the risk that the Taiwanese question plays a role in the US-China relationship is evident, as it is said that status of Taiwan poses “the biggest point of risk” in the relationship. Naturally, the differing perception of Taiwanese sovereignty is point of contention between the two nations, which will most likely be discussed as a means of reducing the potential for needless escalation or miscalculation in the Indo-Pacific region.

In this case, there will potentially be conversation focused on establishing mutual restraint when it comes to Taiwan. Naturally, this would involve a framework that clarifies red lines for both countries, reduces misconceptions of intent, and prevents competition from becoming confrontation. Overall, an equitable deal must be made to control the risk of competition becoming a miscalculated confrontation, which in turn can provide short term stability. However, the tensions will most likely remain unresolved.

Beyond Taiwan, AI and emerging technologies have been a point of contention between the US and China for quite some time. This is clear in the AI gap between the US and China, where the US has a clear advantage over China, as the US holds an 8-month lead over China when it comes to the development of AI applications. The importance of AI is also shown through the US bringing a delegation of Tech executives featuring Tim Cook of Apple, Jensen Huang of Nvidia, and Elon Musk of Tesla. While the US signals that AI and emerging technologies will be a significant aspect of the economic talks, there is a point of conflict. This is evident as China desires to have access to US technology to close the AI and emerging technologies gap. Certainly, President Trump would like to maintain control of the competition by continuing to restrict Chinese access to such technology and remain the leader in the market. However, there is a possibility that the presence of tech executives could hint at some sort of AI and emerging tech agreement, as both the US and China have a desire to develop an AI safety dialogue, which could hint towards a shift to controlled competition in this market. A deal of this sort can, therefore, be beneficial for both these countries.

About Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, the argument can be made that China will use these talks as an opportunity to further cement itself as the stabilizing hand in the conflict. This is clear as China relies on the Strait of Hormuz for its oil imports, as Iran and the rest of the Gulf is vital for China’s energy needs. It is possible China will use these talks to pressure the US to end the conflict and open the Strait of Hormuz.

Throughout the war, China has been highly critical of the US actions in Iran and has labelled the conflict as American unilateral action. If China, were to successfully use these talks to lay down a foundation to end the war, it will further cement itself as a stabilizing force in the MENA region, which can result in MENA nations going to China as a mediating force over the US. This can result in the increase of shared competition between the US and China in the MENA region, but where the US will be described deployer of hard power, China will compete with a soft power approach focused on diplomacy and economic partnerships.

Ultimately, while this summit is can be considered important considering the state of uncertainty in the international system, there is a low probability it can result in any significant breakthrough, especially on geopolitical issues such as Taiwan and Iran. This is due to the magnitude of both geopolitical issues, which will most likely need a separate summit to discuss more in depth. However, positive economic and trade talks from this summit can set the stage for future trade deals that can be mutually beneficial to both the US and China, especially in the fields of AI and emerging technologies. Overall, one can argue that the overall purpose of this summit was not to resolve the tensions between the US and China, but rather to manage how the rivalry plays out to and stabilize the economic competition to prevent possible escalation in a tumultuous and uncertain international system.

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