Red Alert: Israel Orders Full Evacuation of Gaza City

In a further escalation of the nearly two-year war, Israel on Tuesday ordered the full evacuation of Gaza City, home to roughly a million Palestinians, ahead of what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described as the “beginning” of an intensified ground manoeuvre.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) dropped thousands of leaflets instructing residents to flee south toward the overcrowded al-Mawasi “humanitarian zone,” while airstrikes targeted high-rise towers and urban neighbourhoods. The decision marks a turning point in Israel’s campaign, signalling a shift from partial military control of Gaza City to full occupation.

Despite the orders, reports from the ground suggest only a fraction of residents have been able or willing to evacuate. Hospitals are preparing for forced relocations, with doctors insisting they will not abandon patients. Aid agencies warn that al-Mawasi, already hosting tens of thousands in tents, is unsafe and incapable of absorbing another mass influx.

Additionally, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) described Gaza as being “emptied of its starving population,” while the U.N.’s human rights office warned of “catastrophic” consequences for civilians.

The immediate fallout from Israel’s evacuation order will compound the humanitarian crisis in Gaza City and Gaza at large, as residents face the difficult choice of remaining in a besieged city under heavy bombardment or moving south into already overcrowded zones with little shelter, security, or food, even though the U.N. has repeatedly warned that no area of Gaza can be considered safe given that Israeli strikes have repeatedly hit both designated “humanitarian zones” and southern population centres.

Moreover, medical facilities are at the heart of the crisis, since Gaza’s two main functioning hospitals, al-Shifa and al-Ahli, are reportedly preparing for evacuation. Thus, the closure or destruction of these facilities risks leaving Gaza without care. To add to the severity of the current situation, the World Health Organization and humanitarian organizations have already warned of famine conditions and outbreaks of disease; further dislocation of medical services could push the health system into collapse.

Operationally, the IDF has announced that it already controls 40% of Gaza City and is assembling for a full incursion into remaining areas, a move that will likely involve intense urban warfare with Hamas which is expected to mount resistance, making a sharp rise in civilian deaths almost certain, while the evacuation order serves as a tactical attempt to avoiding criticism by asserting that Israel provided “warning” before escalating combat, though international monitors remain sceptical given the lack of viable escape routes or habitable zones.

Diplomatically, the order risks undermining fragile ceasefire negotiations, since mediators had hoped to secure a truce tied to hostage releases but Israel’s military posture suggests a preference for escalation over compromise, while Hamas has stated it will not disarm or release remaining hostages without a permanent end to the war and recognition of Palestinian statehood, making any short-term breakthrough unlikely. Although now the likelihood of ceasefire negotiations resuming are unclear given Israel’s bombing of the Qatari capital which has hosted said negotiations.

On the international stage, this trajectory is compounded by the fact that several European countries have already declared their intention to formally recognize Palestinian statehood at the upcoming U.N. General Assembly, a development that underscores the risk of growing diplomatic isolation for Israel if the current military strategy continues unchecked.

Israel’s decision to forcibly evacuate Gaza City extend well beyond the battlefield, as the destruction of Gaza’s largest urban centre risks permanently altering its demographic and political landscape.

The stated objective is to defeat Hamas and demilitarize Gaza, yet the history of counterinsurgency in urban terrain suggests that even full military occupation cannot eliminate deeply embedded networks. Therefore, a prolonged IDF presence would expose Israeli forces to guerrilla warfare, sap resources, and exacerbate political divisions at home. The challenge of administering a devastated city, providing basic services, policing, and reconstruction, would likely prove unsustainable without international involvement.

This also has significant implications for Netanyahu’s political legacy, if Israel fails to achieve a decisive victory over Hamas, the devastation of Gaza and its people will define his tenure as a symbol of strategic overreach and one in which he wants to keep his power and position without facing post-war consequences.

Additionally, Netanyahu’s policy may accelerate recognition of Palestinian statehood. And, if Gaza City is destroyed and its residents permanently displaced, Israel will face intensified accusations of war crimes at the International Criminal Court and growing censure within the U.N. system.

For Palestinians, the evacuation could mark a defining moment, as the forced movement of approximately a million people risks erasing Gaza City as the cultural and political heart of Palestinian life, further fragmenting society and complicating prospects for statehood, while displacement into al-Mawasi or abroad may entrench long-term refugee conditions that undermine hopes of return, sovereignty, and a future Palestinian state.

Regionally, the evacuation order may also reshape the balance of power, as neighbouring countries confront the prospect of spillover displacement and heightened pressure from Palestinian solidarity movements, while at the same time Iran and its proxies may attempt to pursue broader confrontation with Israel, thereby raising the risk of another wider regional escalation.

 
“Red Alert” is a series of concise, fast-response articles spotlighting a significant trend or event with forward-looking analysis. Combining imagination with brief analytical insights, it outlines potential future consequences.