Robotics, China, and MENA: The Battle for Industrial Sovereignty

China’s robotics drive is no longer just a story of factories becoming more efficient but a story of a new industrial revolution. Each year, hundreds of thousands of new machines are deployed across its production lines, reshaping global supply chains and altering the balance of technological power. For the Middle East and North Africa, this shift raises questions that cannot be postponed. Automation is moving from the margins to the centre of economic strategy, and regions that fail to build capacity risk being locked into systems designed elsewhere.

The future of robotics in MENA is therefore not only about who installs machines the fastest, but about who sets the standards, who controls the data, and who determines the terms of industrial competition. The region’s next chapter will hinge on whether it becomes a maker of the technologies that define the century, or simply a consumer of them.

Over the past decade, China has moved with extraordinary speed to secure an overwhelming lead in industrial robotics, installing and producing robots on a scale unmatched by any other economy in the world. According to the International Federation of Robotics, more than 2 million industrial robots were operating in Chinese factories in 2024 and nearly 300,000 new units were installed in a single year, more than the rest of the world combined. This surge reflects not simply a burst of technological enthusiasm but a deliberate long-term strategy, backed by the country, which has channelled enormous capital, subsidies, and policy incentives into robotics alongside AI and semiconductors as part of the wider “Made in China 2025” industrial plan. The outcome is that Chinese factories not only use robots at an accelerating pace but are also producing them in growing numbers, with nearly three fifths of new robots installed in China now being made domestically.

This transformation has far-reaching consequences for the global economy because robotics and AI are no longer just add-ons that make factories more efficient. Instead, they are becoming the backbone of advanced manufacturing and logistics, restructuring how entire industries operate, from automobile production lines to electronics assembly plants and food processing centres. When automation reaches this scale, it alters competitive advantage and gradually reshapes global supply chains. For countries outside China, particularly in regions still building their manufacturing capacity, the challenge is whether they can adopt robotics fast enough to remain competitive or whether they will find themselves dependent on Chinese technologies to sustain their own industrial ambitions.

The MENA region stands at a critical juncture in this regard, with its manufacturing sector contributing about 9% of regional GDP and employing millions across industries such as textiles, automotive, chemicals, and food processing. In several North African economies, manufacturing has long been a pillar of economic diversification strategies, with Morocco’s automotive sector emerging as the largest in Africa, while in the Gulf countries manufacturing is increasingly tied to ambitious visions of transforming resource-based economies into high-tech hubs.

The UAE has positioned itself as a regional leader in automation, introducing the “Industry 4.0” programme to encourage smart factories and announcing plans to integrate 200,000 robots across sectors by 2030. Also, Saudi Arabia has linked robotics to its Vision 2030 agenda, investing through the Public Investment Fund (PIF) into robotics ventures and deploying automation in sectors ranging from logistics to healthcare.

Yet the uptake of robotics remains uneven and fragmented across the region. While Gulf states with capital surpluses and long-term visions are experimenting with advanced robotics in manufacturing, healthcare, and even municipal services, countries like Egypt, Tunisia, and Morocco are only gradually integrating automation, primarily in export-oriented industries such as automotive and textiles. North African manufacturing hubs still rely heavily on labor-intensive models that compete through cost rather than technology, which exposes them to disruption if robotics drives a sharp increase in productivity elsewhere. Even where automation is being introduced, much of the hardware and software originates from outside the region, and China increasingly dominates that supply.

This contrast becomes particularly clear when considering the different paths taken by China and the MENA region. On the one hand, China has built an integrated ecosystem where robotics manufacturing, AI, and skilled labour reinforce each other in a self-sustaining cycle. On the other hand, MENA countries are only beginning to adopt robotics, often through imports and pilot projects that have not yet scaled across industries. The gap between the two regions is therefore not only of volume but also of strategy and capacity, since China has embedded robotics into its national industrial planning while the Middle East and North Africa remain reliant on fragmented adoption and external supply chains. As a result, the region risks moving into a future where it uses robots extensively but does not control their design, production, or maintenance, leaving critical sectors shaped by decisions made elsewhere.

As robotics has already become the foundation of industrial growth in the 21st century, the real challenge for the MENA region is not whether to adopt automation but whether to do so in a way that preserves autonomy rather than locking it into a dependency cycle with external suppliers. At first glance importing robots from China may seem efficient, since Chinese companies offer machines at far lower prices than competitors in Europe or the United States. For governments and companies eager to modernise factories quickly this is attractive, yet it carries deeper risks that go beyond cost and efficiency.

Moreover, dependency in robotics is not limited to buying machines, since industrial robots require constant maintenance, software updates, replacement of parts, and integration into wider digital systems that are increasingly powered by AI. If these systems are predominantly Chinese in origin, then the data flows generated by MENA industries could be processed through Chinese platforms, the standards governing performance could be set by Chinese firms, and the supply of critical spare parts could be subject to Chinese policy decisions. Over time this could reduce the ability of MENA governments to pursue independent industrial strategies, since their manufacturing and logistics sectors would be bound to the technological choices of one supplier.

The risks are amplified when one considers the range of sectors that automation is beginning to penetrate. In logistics hubs such as Jebel Ali Port in UAE or the Suez Canal Economic Zone in Egypt, robots are increasingly used for loading, warehousing, and tracking among containers.

In healthcare, Gulf countries have begun piloting robotic surgery systems and automated diagnostics, with the GCC surgical robots market valued at around $119 million in 2024 and projected to exceed $418 million by 2033 at a growth rate of about 15% annually.

In energy and natural resource sectors, companies are deploying automated drilling, inspection drones and robotic maintenance systems, while in defence robotics and drones are expanding rapidly. If the backbone of these sectors rests on Chinese-made robotics and software then technological dependency becomes a question of national sovereignty.

Control over robotics ecosystems is equivalent to control over data, productivity, and ultimately labour policy, since automation defines how many jobs remain and what kinds of skills are required.

In fact, China’s pattern in technology demonstrates how dominance in hardware production can be leveraged to set standards and control supply chains globally. For example, China now has a robot density of roughly 470 units per 10,000 manufacturing workers, up from about 402 just a year earlier. Meanwhile, the global average robot density in factories rose to about 162 units per 10,000 employees in 2023, more than double what it was seven years earlier. This rapid rise highlights not only China’s progress but also the growing gap facing other regions. For MENA countries, the danger is that by the time robotics adoption becomes widespread across industries, the supply chain, software protocols, and system standards will already be deeply rooted in Chinese technology, leaving little room to develop alternative ecosystems.

However, this does not mean that the region is entirely powerless, since some governments in MENA have begun to take steps to address the risks of technological dependency, even if these remain modest relative to the scale of the challenge. In Saudi Arabia, the number of robotics companies registered surged by 52%, reaching 2,344 in the second quarter of 2023 compared to 1,537 in the same period a year earlier. At the same time, Saudi firms such as ‘Prosperity7’ under the PIF have invested heavily into robotics startups, including partnerships with foreign firms. In the UAE, the robotics and automation market, with a particular focus on service robotics, is growing steadily, the professional services robotics market generated more than $150 million in 2024 and is expected to almost double by 2030; autonomous mobile robot systems alone generated around $33.8 million in 2024 and are projected to reach $84.5 million by 2030, growing at about 16% annually.

Other countries in the region are also making progress, though at different speeds and scales. In Morocco, for example, robotics training has been introduced into the automotive sector, which now produces over 700,000 vehicles each year. In Egypt, robotics-based automation is being adopted in areas like logistics, food processing, and pharmaceuticals, with support from international investors. Iraq’s industrial robotics market is expected to generate around $878,000 in revenue by 2025, although growth beyond that is likely to be slow. Lebanon’s robotics sector is still small, with projected revenues of about $623,000 by the end of 2025, while its service robotics market is growing, but only gradually. In Oman, the robotics market is expected to grow at an annual rate of 8.9% between 2025 and 2031, particularly in sectors like manufacturing, food processing, and transport, where automation can help with repetitive tasks and improve accuracy. Algeria is planning to launch a 1.5 billion dinar investment fund, worth around $10 million, to support startups in AI, cybersecurity, and robotics.

Together, these efforts show a growing interest in robotics across the region. But without long-term planning and consistent investment, they are unlikely to match the scale or coordination seen in China’s more advanced robotics ecosystem.

The fundamental risk is that the region repeats a familiar pattern where technology is consumed but not produced. In the 20th century the region imported industrial machinery, telecommunications systems, and digital platforms without building domestic capacity to manufacture them. The result was decades of dependency on foreign suppliers, which limited flexibility and left economic development vulnerable to external shocks. In the 21st century the same could happen with robotics, except the stakes are higher, because automation is not just a tool but the infrastructure upon which entire economies will rest. If factories, ports, hospitals, and energy systems run on foreign robots, then sovereignty in policy and strategy will be constrained.

In short, the global surge in robotics, with China playing a key role, marks a more advanced phase of the new industrial revolution, one in which machines and AI are integrated into every sector of the economy. For MENA, the question is not whether to participate, but how to do so in a way that avoids long-term dependency. China’s scale, cost advantages, and state-driven strategy mean that it will remain a dominant supplier of industrial robots for years to come. But for MENA countries, the danger lies in adopting these technologies without building their own capacity to produce, adapt, and maintain them.

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