U.S. Intelligence Support Signals a New Phase in the Russia-Ukraine War

On October 1, U.S. reports stated that President Donald Trump gave the green light to provide Ukraine with intelligence information to strike deep into Russia’s energy infrastructure sites, while studying providing Kyiv with long-range weapons that can be used in such strikes. The reports also indicated that Washington is encouraging the NATO allies to take similar actions.

The U.S. has already been providing intelligence to Ukraine since the beginning of the war; however, Trump's signalling to provide more sensitive information could hold different consequences on the outcomes of the war. Since his second-term inauguration, Trump has vowed to end the Russia-Ukraine war, so does this decision come in parallel to the American President's ambition to broker a peace deal between Moscow and Kyiv, and how this might implicate the Russian and Ukrainian sides.

On August 15 and 18, 2025 Trump held bilateral meetings with Russian and Ukrainian counterparts, President Vladimir Putin and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, respectively, in efforts to reach a ceasefire and a prolonged peace agreement. However, the peace talks seemed to have been frozen, where each side, Moscow and Kyiv, had conflicting demands as preconditions for sitting at the negotiation table.

Trump aspired to broker a peace deal between the two countries since he took office, meeting with each President to negotiate a peace deal. Frustrated with the peace talks’ deadlock, Trump seems to be taking a different approach to end the war, focusing on constraining Russia’s power to advance on the battlefield. For that reason, the Trump administration seems to be shifting its focus to making Russia lose the resources that supply its military operations, namely its energy sources.

Trump is mainly exerting pressure on Russia from one side to advance the stalled peace talks. First, in a surprising statement, he said that Kyiv could possibly win back all the land that Russia has captured, in contrast to his previous statement that suggested that Ukraine would have to give up territory to end the war. Second, he approved U.S. intelligence to assist Ukraine in hitting deep inside Russia’s energy infrastructure. Third, the Trump administration is studying to provide Ukraine with Tomahawk long-range cruise missiles that could strike deep inside Russia.

The U.S.  has already been providing intelligence assistance to Ukraine, but it is the first time that the country agrees to extend it to target energy refineries in Russia’s depth. Trump believes that if Moscow faced more loss of their energy resources, alongside the economic difficulties that the country is facing amid overspending on the military operation, it might push Putin to negotiate.

Additionally, the Tomahawk cruise missiles that Ukraine could get can hit deep into Russia’s lands: the model with a 2,500 km range can reach around 1,945 Russian military objects, including 76 air bases, and the 1,600 km model can reach around 1,655 Russian military objects, including 67 air bases. The missiles could target energy infrastructure locations, such as refineries, pipelines, and power plants. This would harm Russia’s oil production, and hence, impair financing the war’s needs, and strain its already troubled economy. For the U.S., this would constraint Russia’s efforts to continue the war and pave the way for a ceasefire then a peace deal.

Coupled with that, several European countries are diversifying their oil imports to depend less on Russian oil, and Trump has been pushing the EU and other countries, such as India, to stop importing Russian oil. So, the Trump administration might be projecting that the sanctions and the deep strikes on the energy sites could harm the Russian economy in the warfare sector, forcing Moscow to negotiate with Ukraine.

At the same time, Ukraine is working to lure Trump to its side of the negotiation table by appointing Yuliia Svyrydenko as the Prime Minister of Ukraine. Svyrydenko, previously Economy Minister, was the one who negotiated a joint investment in Ukraine’s natural resources with the Trump administration, which gave the U.S. access to the country’s mineral resources. The appointment of Svyrydenko is a strategy that focuses on presenting Ukraine as a place for investments, not just aid, in response to Trump’s concerns about providing unconditional U.S. financial support to Ukraine without returns. Kyiv has sought to appeal to Trump by emphasizing the idea of investments, which could be considered a factor in Washington reconsidering the supply of long-range missiles to Kyiv.

Source: Institute for the Study of War, October 5, 2025, Accessed October 6, 2025. https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-5-2025/

Granting U.S. intelligence information to Ukraine’s operations to target inside Russia’s territory and hit energy infrastructure holds several repercussions on Russia, Ukraine, and the war-peace dilemma.

First, sensitive areas will be hit inside Russia, mainly energy infrastructure sites. Ukraine has already been launching strikes on Russian oil refineries, causing fuel shortages in some areas inside the country and an increase in prices. With the U.S. intelligence focusing on energy infrastructures, the strikes are projected to increase in number and be more accurate. Better intelligence would direct Ukraine to target the precise locations of the refineries and pipelines, particularly the unrefined crude oil sites used for exports, which would affect the money going inside the country and hinder the finances of the troops, forcing Putin to resurface the negotiations.

Military supply in Russia is linked to oil revenues, and due to western sanctions forcing Russia to sell its oil at a discounted rate, coupled with a decline in crude oil price, Russia’s oil and gas revenues are expected to drop from nearly $135 billion in 2024 to around $100 billion in 2025. If U.S. intelligence’s support to Ukraine helps to damage more oil refiners, the revenue might be further declined. Nevertheless, reports suggest that Russia is planning to import petrol from China, Singapore, and South Korea to fill the petrol deficiency amid Ukraine strikes on oil refineries. So, if strikes become more precise, Moscow may rush to import the oil and lift import duties.

This also depends on whether the U.S. will approve the use of its Tomahawk missiles to hit deeper inside Russia, targeting the energy infrastructure, or will it limit it for Ukraine to use it on its defensive movements at the battlefield. As during the beginning of the war, the U.S. had banned Kyiv from using its weapons to strike deep inside Russia, until recently, when the Biden administration allowed it to use them across the border at certain military targets for defensive actions.

Additionally, there are two other factors that could contribute to the implications for Russia. Winter conditions play a role in hindering the overall operation, as the harsh winter in this geographic area restrict the troops from securing major advancements. In addition, the Flamingo long-range missiles, being developed by Ukraine, could be advantageous to target deeper inside Russia’s oil refiners and military bases. So, the goal is to increase financial pressure on Moscow to sit at the negotiation table. By providing American intelligence to damage oil refineries that supply the war, coupled with the Tomahawk long-range missiles, this strategy could significantly reshape a new phase in the war and Ukraine’s position on the battlefield.

Second, Russia would have a strong response and a possible escalation. It is expected that Russia will maximize its strikes all over Ukraine and might wave for a nuclear escalation as an initial response. Furthermore, Putin warned that sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine would harm the improvements in the U.S.-Russia relations, and Moscow has repeatedly stated that if any Western country attacks Russia, it will be legitimate to target them. Hence, U.S. intelligence targeting oil refiners and long-range cruise missiles will deteriorate the bilateral relations between the two countries and might harm any aspirations for a peace deal negotiation. Also, the threat of escalation will encompass the neighbouring countries.

At the same time, Russia will have the support of its allies. After the U.S. reports, a Ukrainian official reported that China is providing Russia with satellite intelligence information for targeting strategic spots inside Ukraine. So, China, alongside with North Koreas, are strong allies to Russia, sharing a common interest of disintegrating American hegemony. That being said, Russia will have the intelligence support and oil imports of Beijing or Pyongyang as response to U.S. increased intelligence support to Ukraine. This will make Moscow’s position cohesive and avoid the collapse of the overall military supply chain in the country.

Third, NATO countries might not agree to be put in a position that exposes them to strikes from Russia, so some of them could refuse to provide the same intelligence information to Ukraine. Poland, Estonia, and Romania have been faced with Russian drones and fighter jets over their territory, and Trump seems to be reluctant to be pulled deep into the conflict area. Trump previously said the NATO countries should shoot down Russian aircraft that breach their airspace; nevertheless, he didn’t seem to have the intention for the U.S. to back any country that does so. This increases the vulnerability of the surrounding countries to Russia and Ukraine, and might leave them to disassociate with any escalation.

In conclusion, the Trump administration’s surprising decision is derived from his ambition to secure a peace deal, especially after securing one between Israel and Hamas. His goal to be portrayed as a peacemaker induces him to agree on intelligence support to Kyiv targeting Russian oil infrastructure. U.S. intelligence support signals a new phase in the Russia-Ukraine war; it is not necessarily a de-escalation phase, but forecasts state that Russia’s energy infrastructure would be deeply affected. With Russia’s economy facing several problems with energy supply amid the war, U.S. intelligence information on the precise locations of energy refineries would help Ukraine to strike these targets consistently over a long period of time, which might start a new phase in the war were a ceasefire is reached before the spring begins.

On the other side, Moscow’s response could lead to a new escalation phase that could harm any potential peace talks. Russia would have a harsh response on Ukrainian territory, spreading to the neighbouring countries, with the support of its allies. Yet, Putin’s warning that the United States’ supply of Tomahawk missiles would destroy Moscow-Washington relations, could make the Trump administration prefer reaching a peace settlement in the long-term, thus defer from sending these missiles and confine its assistance to intelligence information only.

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