The Capture of Nicolas Maduro: The Consequences of US Regime Change in South America

Tensions between the United States and Venezuela have exploded into a forceful attack that has resulted in the capture and detention of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. The U.S. President Donald Trump has accused President Maduro of instigating a mass migration of Venezuelan citizens, being involved in the fentanyl drug trade, and stealing oil wealth to fund drug operations. Consequently, President Trump authorized attacks on Venezuelan vessels, which he claimed to be transporting drugs to the U.S. while also increasing the number of troops stationed in the Caribbean Sea. Now that President Maduro has been captured after months of U.S. escalation, there is an uncertainty regarding the future of Venezuela, the region, and the world.

The attack as part of Operation Absolute Resolve can be seen as an attempt by President Trump to force regime change in Venezuela. The capture of President Maduro could have serious ramifications not only for the warring factions but the regions of South America and the Caribbean as well as the world. This may come in the form of collapsing institutions and industrial sectors such as energy, a loss of credibility for the U.S., regional destabilization brought on by a devastating refugee crisis, while also having a negative impact on the global economy.

First of all, the removal of President Maduro will not necessarily translate to the restoration of state institutions in Venezuela. As the Maduro government is highly centralized, the removal of the regime without any plan to replace the government and strengthen existing institutions will have devastating consequences. The U.S. removal of the Maduro government can lead to the disintegration of government institutions and fragmentation among different networks, which could result in conflict to fill the power vacuum. Conflict brought on by the race to fill a power vacuum is an unintended trademark of US regime change attempts in the past, especially pertaining to the MENA region. For example, the invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the NATO led intervention in Libya in 2011 removed centralized governments without fixing existing institutions, which resulted in fragmentation of armed and political groups in both countries, where the consequence was instability and armed conflict. This can be the reality for Venezuela if President Maduro was suddenly removed from power by the U.S. with no plan to restore the state.

The fragmentation of government institutions combined with a civil conflict resulting from a regime war will result in the collapse of Venezuela’s energy sector. Venezuela is an oil rich country, and the Maduro government relies on Venezuela’s oil reserves to fund his government’s activities. The transport of sanctioned oil is an important aspect of the Maduro government, as it allows President Maduro to sustain his patronage system while also serving as his main source of income. Naturally, the recent US blockade on Venezuelan oil threatens to not only disrupt President Maduro’s patronage system, but also Venezuela’s energy sector. The blockade enforced by President Trump will see Venezuela lose a chunk of its oil sales, which means the Venezuelan energy sector would have to reduce the amount of fuel it produces and refines. This alone would send shocks through Venezuela’s already struggling economy.

This would be a major consequence of the current blockade; however, the consequences of regime change on the Venezuelan energy sector would be catastrophic. Regime change will no doubt lead to the collapse of the Venezuelan energy sector, as the removal of President Maduro and the potential conflict that follows will lead to massive disruptions in oil operations in Venezuela. This is clear as the disruptions in the oil operations will prevent Venezuela from rebuilding its energy sector, which will leave it vulnerable. Beyond disruption in operations, regime change would bring about an increase in the price of oil, which will not only damage Venezuela, but will have an impact on the global oil markets. These risks are outlined as a “…destabilised Venezuela – particularly if regime change is achieved through military intervention – could temporarily reduce production further, spiking prices before any long-term supply benefits materialize”. Combined with the fragile Venezuelan economy, disruption in oil operations, and political uncertainty caused by regime change, it is a possibility that such shocks could contribute to the collapse of the Venezuelan energy sector, which could have regional ramifications for South America and the world.

Beyond the restoration and sectorial collapse, another failed regime change attempt conducted by the U.S. could lead to a loss of US credibility. The Trump administration is under immense scrutiny for their attacks on Venezuelan boats and seizing Venezuelan oil tankers. This is clear as President Trump is facing domestic pressure from Democrats as well as human rights groups across the world who claim that his targeting of boats and oil tankers amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity. These actions are already damaging to the credibility of the U.S.; however, the impact of a U.S.-led regime change will be devasting to the U.S.’ and President Trump’s credibility.

The damage regime change would have on President Trump’s credibility will be significant, as one of his primary promises was to end US involvement in the so-called “forever wars” through his America First foreign policy. President Trump has long been a critic of regime change wars, as he has attacked former US leaders such as President George W. Bush for his regime change war in Iraq. The invasion of Iraq dealt a heavy blow to US credibility and the concept of regime change, as this war resulted in increased debt and loss of life. According to Rosemary Kelanic of Time, “Together, the disastrous wars in Iraq and Afghanistan killed nearly 7,000 U.S. soldiers (and many more Iraqis and Afghans), cost about $4.4 trillion, and discredited the idea of boots-on-the-ground regime change”. Regime change is costly and the failure in achieving success will have dire consequences for the instigator of such a conflict. This is clear as a failed regime change attempt in Venezuela will result in the discreditation of US foreign policy and domestic backlash, which will only hurt the U.S.’ prestige abroad.

The argument can be made that regime change in Venezuela could result in heavy reputational damage not only to the U.S. as a global power, but also to President Trump as an anti-interventionist leader. President Trump was clear in his 2016 and 2024 presidential campaigns that he will not pursue a “forever war” or regime change due to the high costs it may have on economy and loss of life. Moreover, the U.S. has suffered from reputational damage in the past due to foreign policy misadventures and failed regime change wars such as Iraq and Afghanistan. Therefore, regime change in Venezuela risks not only being another foreign policy blunder but could also seal the fate of the U.S.’ credibility abroad and domestically.

Regime change in Venezuela will have consequences not only for Venezuela and the U.S., but also for South America and the Caribbean. Regime change in Venezuela will have a destabilizing effect on regional security for both regions, which can be explained by a potential mass migration of Venezuelan nationals to neighbouring countries feeling conflict. Already there is a massive migration of Venezuelan nationals who are attempting to escape poverty and political persecution. According to the UNHCR, 6.5 million Venezuelan’s have fled to neighbouring countries in South America and the Caribbean, with most settling in Colombia, Brazil, and Peru.

Regime change will exacerbate the existing migration crisis and will lead to a consequential exodus, which can have a destabilizing effect on South American and Caribbean countries housing Venezuelan refugees. An explanation for such assertion is that “Massive human outflows from Venezuela could destabilize the politics, economics, and security of neighbouring nations…”. This destabilization can come in the form of border insecurity as a challenge to state sovereignty as well as the formation of political movements within refugee camps. Take the example of the MENA region, where forced displacement during the Syrian Civil War and the 1948 Arab-Israeli war resulted in mass migration of Syrians and Palestinians into neighbouring countries. Both these wars resulted in heightened border insecurity in countries such as Lebanon and Jordan, while also leading to a straining of resources as both countries had to provide protection and essential services to refugee populations as well as the local populations. It is possible that a war between the U.S. and Venezuela will forcibly displace a large number of Venezuelans into neighbouring countries in South America and the Caribbean, which will inevitably in border insecurity and sovereignty challenges that will strain resources and government institutions, resulting in political and economic destabilization in these regions.

Although mass migration caused by regime change may pose a challenge to border security and the sovereignty of neighbouring countries in South America and the Caribbean, it is plausible the war may lead to the creation of militant groups abroad, which poses a security risk for host countries. The concept of refugee camps being used by militants not new, as there has been a history of militants mixing in with refugees to embed themselves in refugee camps to regroup. For example, Hutu militants from Rwanda migrated to Zaire by mixing in with refugees following the Rwanda genocide. If regime change were to be handled by the U.S., it is possible that pro-Maduro militants could sneak into neighbouring countries during a resulting refugee crisis. Naturally, this would pose a security threat for host countries, as pro-Maduro militants could use refugee camps as a vehicle carry out cross border attacks during war time. A consequence would be the U.S. turning its attention to these neighbouring countries and carrying out attacks to clear refugee camps of pro-Maduro militants. This kind of warfare would surely lead to a dire security situation across South America and the Caribbean and could see the regime change war change into a wider regional conflict.

While regime change may bring about consequences on a regional scale, the global implications cannot be overlooked. In this case, like other wars in recent years, regime change could have a major impact on the global economy. These consequences can come in many forms including slowing of GDP growth, rising prices, and a devastating inflationary crisis.

First, it should be noted that there does not need to be an actual regime change war for the global economy to slow down, but rather just the fear of regime change could be enough to do damage. This is exemplified through the U.S.-China trade war in President Trump’s first term, where economists made the argument that a shift from the rules-based economic structure to an economic power struggle would constitute a regime change of sorts. The argument was that the fear of this potential economic regime change would result in businesses not being able to “…rely on international trade for customers and suppliers”. As a result, economic growth slows as GDP starts to decline as a result of this fear of regime change. It is possible that the threat of regime change could result in slower economic growth around the world, which in turn will contribute to increased fears of declining economic activity among businesses and economists.

Furthermore, U.S. influenced regime change could impact the global economy through increased inflation. The act of regime change combined with economic pressures such as sanctions as well as blockades contribute to an increase in the price of an array of essential goods hence, resulting in high inflation. Take the Russo-Ukraine War for example, where sanctions on Russian products have resulted in an increase in the price of food and oil, which impacted numerous countries in the global south that relied on such products to sustain their populations. Already, the U.S.’ economic pressures on Venezuela are having an inflationary effect on both Venezuela and the global economy. This is evident through the increase in the global price of oil resulting from sanctions and the oil blockade, while there is also a severe devaluation crisis happening in Venezuela. Moreover, the tensions have also resulted in an increase in the price of gold and silver by 2.4% (gold) and 3.4% (silver). Regime change will likely lead to an inflationary crisis akin to the crisis caused by the Russo-Ukraine war, as the U.S. and its allies will impose more sanctions on Venezuelan industries as a means of pressuring the remnants of the Maduro government to concede defeat. These economic pressures will in turn result in a domino effect that will result in an increase in the price of oil and other products that Venezuela trades in, which can impact the economies that rely on Venezuelan trade.

Regime change in Venezuela will have devastating consequences for both Venezuela and the U.S., which could spill over and impact countries within the region. Ultimately, it is vital that the U.S. puts a stable roadmap to maintain stability in Venezuela, as removing the remnants of Maduro’s government will risk not only destabilizing Venezuela but also South America and the Caribbean. The U.S. should learn from the mistakes of Iraq and Libya in order not to repeat them again in Venezuela.

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